Earthquake forecasting using the rate-and-state friction model and a smoothing Kernel: application to Taiwan

Abstract. In this work, two approaches were employed for estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity density in Taiwan. With the use of the rate-and-state friction model, a model for short-term forecasting according to the fault-interaction-based rate disturbance due to seismicity was considered. Another long-term forecasting model that involves a smoothing Kernel function is proposed. The application of the models to Taiwan led to good agreement between the model forecast and actual observations. Using an integration of the two approaches, the application was found to be capable of providing a seismicity forecast with a higher accuracy and reliability. To check the stability related to the regression the bandwidth function, the forecasted seismicity rates corresponding to the upper and lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals are compared. The result shows that deviations within the bandwidth functions had an insignificant impact on forecasting reliability. Besides, insignificant differences in the forecasted rate change were obtained when Aσ was assumed to be between 0.1 and 0.4 bars for the application of the rate-and-state friction model. By considering the maximum Coulomb stress change among the seismogenic depth, the model presents a better forecasting ability than that using any single fixed target depth. The proposed methodology, with verified applicability for seismicity forecasts, could be useful for seismic hazard analyses.