Brief communication "Evaluating European Coastal Evolution using Bayesian Networks"
- 1BRGM, 3 Avenue Claude Guillemin, BP 36009, 45060 Orleans, France
- *now at: Laboratoire d'Hydraulique Saint-Venant, 6 quai Watier, BP 49, 78401 Chatou, France
Abstract. The coastal zone is a complex environment in which a variety of forcing factors interact causing shoreline evolution. Coastal managers seek to predict coastal evolution and to identify regions vulnerable to erosion. Here, a Bayesian network is developed to identify the primary factors influencing decadal-scale shoreline evolution of European coasts and to reproduce the observed evolution trends. Sensitivity tests demonstrate the robustness of the model, showing higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts than for eroding coasts. Finally, the study highlights the need to update and expand large-scale coastal data sets, particularly by including local scale processes and anthropogenic impacts.