the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 25 Nov 2024
Brief Communication: Investigating trends in European hailstorm damage using CMIP6-DAMIP climate models
Abstract. Warming seas around Europe have been driving recent upward trends in hailstorm severity. Therefore, learning more about changes to sea temperatures can give insights into hail climate too. Here, we use the DAMIP (Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project) set of climate model experiments to explore how external forcings have modified Mediterranean temperatures. Climate models indicate external forcings caused most of the multidecadal changes in modern times, with anthropogenic aerosols explaining the cool period from about 1900 to the late 1970s, and greenhouse gas increases mainly responsible for the rapid 0.5 K/decade warming of the Mediterranean since then. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are expected to continue warming seas which suggests European hailstorm risk will keep rising.
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CC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-210', Cameron Rye, 12 Dec 2024
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I have a comment about the trends in insured losses reported in the paper. Further details around the methodology used to adjust historical losses to present-day values is required. For example, it appears that GDV losses for Germany automobiles have been adjusted for inventory (number of cars) and inflation. However, the standard method for adjusting insured losses is to account for three factors: inflation, wealth and inventory. I suspect wealth has not been taken into account in this instance. The $ value of cars has increased significantly over time, particularly with the introduction of electric vehicles. As a result, I suspect the average pay-out for a auto hail claim will have significantly increased over time. How can the authors be sure that the trend in Figure 1a is due to increasing risk and not simply reflecting the increasing value of vehicles? The same point applies to other datasets, for example it appears that the France property data have only been adjust for the cost of reconstruction (FFB index), and not other factors.Â
Secondly, I suggest that the focus of the paper could be expanded to consider other perils. The med ocean is also important for e.g. medicines, cut-off lows, Vb cyclones. Hail risk is complex, and not entirely dependent on the med ocean (i.e. there is not necessarily a direct 1-to-1 link). In my view it would be a more rounded article if the focus is the med, and then talk about how this is important for a number of perils. Â
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210-CC1
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