03 Aug 2023
 | 03 Aug 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for cities: Counterfactual analysis in a Chilean case study

Rosita Jünemann, Alejandro Urrutia, Monserrat Damian, Oscar Ortiz, Felipe Zurita, and Jorge G. F. Crempien

Abstract. We develop a comprehensive probabilistic seismic risk assessment model and apply it to the coastal city of San Antonio in Chile. We use this model to analyze the implications of various counterfactuals of the exposed building stock, in terms of different risk metrics. We begin by generating a synthetic earthquake catalog via Monte Carlo simulations. We then simulate spatial seismic intensities by using ground motion models, considering correlation parameters specifically estimated for the Chilean subduction zone, to evaluate ground motion intensity measures at each site. Additionally, we develop a high-resolution exposure model that characterizes the building stock and population distribution at the census block level. We use the proposed methodology to obtain risk curves for the current exposed building stock, as well as for four counterfactuals involving changes in building materials and/or design levels. Thus, we quantitatively identify the most effective alternatives for mitigation plans. These alternatives consider not only physical damage but also economic losses and casualties, showing the method's potential for its use as a valuable public policy planning tool for decision-makers. Specifically, we find that changing either the building material or the design level of the predominant building class results in significant reductions in expected annual losses of physical damage, casualties and economic losses.

Rosita Jünemann et al.

Status: open (until 12 Oct 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Rosita Jünemann et al.

Rosita Jünemann et al.


Total article views: 248 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
189 52 7 248 6 5
  • HTML: 189
  • PDF: 52
  • XML: 7
  • Total: 248
  • BibTeX: 6
  • EndNote: 5
Views and downloads (calculated since 03 Aug 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 03 Aug 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 224 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 224 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
Latest update: 03 Oct 2023
Short summary
We developed a probabilistic seismic risk assessment model and applied it to a coastal city in Chile, incorporating high-resolution exposure model and Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard. Evaluating various counterfactual scenarios of building stock, we quantitatively identified the most effective mitigation options, considering not only physical damage but also economic losses and casualties. The method has potential use as a valuable public policy planning tool for decision-makers.