Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-46
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-46
 
08 Feb 2022
08 Feb 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Quantifying the probability and uncertainty of multiple-structure rupture and recurrence intervals in Taiwan

Chieh-Chen Chang1, Chih-Yu Chang1, and Chung-Han Chan1,2 Chieh-Chen Chang et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan, 32001, Taiwan
  • 2Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management (E-DREaM) Center, National Central University, Taoyuan, 32001, Taiwan

Abstract. This study identifies fault pairs with potential for simultaneous rupture in a coseismic period based on a physics-based model, and proposes a set of formulas to evaluate their recurrence intervals and uncertainties. To assess the potential for a multiple-fault rupture, we calculated the probability of stress triggering between active faults. We assumed that a multiple-fault rupture would occur if two faults could trigger each other by enhancing the plane with thresholds of a stress increase and the distance between the faults. To estimate the recurrence intervals for multiple-fault ruptures, we implemented a statistics-based model in which the slip rate could be partitioned based on the earthquake magnitudes of the individual fault and multiple-fault ruptures. Due to a larger characteristic magnitude and a larger displacement of the multiple-fault rupture, its recurrence interval could be longer. Therefore, application of the multiple-fault rupture could lead to an increase in seismic hazard in a long return period, which would be crucial for the safety evaluation of infrastructures, such as nuclear power plants and dams.

Chieh-Chen Chang et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-46', Jack Williams, 27 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Response to Reviewer #1 Jack Williams', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC6: 'The annotated manuscript is available', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC11: 'The revised manuscript with annotation is available online', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-46', João Fonseca, 03 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Response to Reviewer #2 João Fonseca', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC7: 'The annotated manuscript is available', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC10: 'The revised manuscript with annotation is available online', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2022-46', Anonymous Referee #3, 05 Mar 2022
    • AC3: 'Response to Reviewer #3 Anonymous Referee', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC8: 'The revised manuscript with annotation is available online', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
  • RC4: 'Comment on nhess-2022-46', Alexandra Carvalho, 21 Mar 2022
    • AC4: 'Response to Reviewer #4 Alexandra Carvalho', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
      • AC9: 'The revised manuscript with annotation is available online', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022
  • AC5: 'Annotated manuscript', Chung-Han Chan, 14 May 2022

Chieh-Chen Chang et al.

Chieh-Chen Chang et al.

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Short summary
A rupture taking place along several faults can cause a large earthquake and often leads to disaster. This study identifies structures that could rupture simultaneously based on a physics-based model and proposes a set of formulas to evaluate their recurrence intervals and uncertainties. Our approach’s procedure can be applied to reexamining the composite ruptures of the seismogenic structure system in Taiwan and other regions, beneficial to subsequent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.
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