the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 31 Mar 2022
Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
Abstract. We investigate the temporal and spatial seismicity patterns prior to eight M > 6 events nucleating in different region of Taiwan through region-time-length algorithm and analysis of self-organizing spinodal model. Our results reveal that the spatiotemporial seismicity variations during the preparation process of impending earthquakes would display distinctive pattern corresponding to the tectonic setting. Q-type events occur in southern Taiwan and experience seismic quiescence stage prior to the mainshock. Seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the high b-value southern Central Range, which contributes to accumulate the tectonic stress for preparing the occurrence of the Q-type event. On the other hand, A-type events occur in central Taiwan and experience seismic activation stage prior to the mainshock, which nucleated on the edge of the seismic activation area. We should pay attention when accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears within the low b-value area, which would promote the nucleation process of the A-type event.
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Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-114', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Apr 2022
Taiwan RTL paper review result
This paper applied a weighted analysis algorithm for time (T) / distance (R) and size of an earthquake (L) developed mainly by Sobolev and his Russian colleagues to a magnitude 6 class earthquake that occurred in Taiwan.
Major Problems:
The conclusion of this paper was drawn with only one RTL parameter. We know that even a small change in the RTL parameters can change the conclusion, which is dangerous. See Nagao et al (2011) for a comparison of multiple RTL parameters.
Both Sobolev et al. and Wyss reported that seismic quiescence occurs shortly before the impending earthquake (e.g., Wyss et al., 2004., Huang et al, 2001, Huang and Nagao, 2002).
Furthermore, it cannot be proved that the seismic quiescence that occurred many years ago is not related to the earthquake that occurred several years later, but it is meaningless for practical earthquake prediction.
The RTL value is the product of the standard deviations. It takes a value of -8 when it is -2 sigma in terms of time, -2 sigma in space, and -2 sigma in terms of the size of the earthquake. Sobolev et al., also find that the RTL value fluctuates and basically makes sense for the seismic quiescence that exceeds around -8.
Nagao et al (2011) proposed another algorithm for L in the RTL method (RTM algorithm). This is because L appears twice in the definition of L proposed by Sobolev et al. It seemed this dual appearance of Ri seems to be in contradiction to the original concept of the RTL algorithm.
Therefore, the reviewer has previously contacted Dr. Sobolev directly and asked, "Why does the distance (Ri) appear twice in L's formula?" Dr. Sobolev's answer was, "This is to make it easier to detect seismic activation."
This means that once a relatively large earthquake occurs in the vicinity of the RTL calculating point, the RTL value becomes large and discontinuous (e.g. Nagao et al., 2011).
Furthermore, although it is written in Japanese, there is a paper that seismic quiescence and activation occur in pairs (Matsumura, 2005). To briefly summarize Matsumura's hypothesis, "Seismic quiescence is recognized as a macro-scale view due to stress reallocation caused by activation of local seismic activity, and for the micro-scale, there seems a locally activated region does exist."
In the current content, it is hard to say that this paper properly uses the characteristics of the RTL algorithm, and it cannot be said that it explains the characteristics of Taiwan's seismic activity very much.
In conclusion, a major extensive revision is required, and it is judged that publication is not possible at the present stage.
Minor Problems:
Figure 2
q-type
Much greater quiescence than the authors point out as "quiet" has appeared before that. Furthermore, the quiescence value (RTL value) is extremely small, and it seems like a range of fluctuations.
a-type
Similar to the q-type, a large activation period may have appeared before that, or it may take more than a year and a half from the end of activation to the actual occurrence of an earthquake. The orange curve is drawn in the two graphs, but there is no explanation for it.
LINE 180:
Rundle et al., 2000 does not exist in the references. According to the authors, this paper describes the SOS model. There is no description of the self-organizing spinodal model in Rundle et al 2003.
References:
Nagao, T., A. Takeuchi and K. Nakamura, A new algorithm for the detection of seismic quiescence: introduction of the RTM algorithm, a modified RTL algorithm, Earth Planets Space, 63, 315-324, 2011.
Wyss, M, G. Sobolev, and J. D. Clippard, Seismic quiescence precursors to two M7 earthquakes on Sakhalin Island, measured by two methods, Earth Planets Space, 56, 725–740, 2004.
Huang, Q., Sobolev, G.A., T. Nagao, Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2 Kobe earthquake, January 17, 1995. Tectonophysics 337, 99-116, 2001.
Huang, Q. and T. Nagao, Seismic quiescence before the 2000 M=7.3 Tottori earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 12, 10.1029/2001GL013835, 2002.
Matsumura, S., Why does the precursory change of seismicity rate tend to be quiescence?, Zisin, 57, 441–444, 2005 (in Japanese with English Abstract).
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
Dear reviewer,
Thank you very much for reviewing our paper titled “ Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen”. We have read the review carefully and have accordingly made substantive modifications to the manuscript and explained the details in the response letter as the uploaded file. The manuscript was revised to address all changes marked in red.
Sincerely,
Yi-Ying Wen and co-authors
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
-
RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-114', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Apr 2022
In the paper by Wen et al., Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen, the RTL algorithm is applied to the seismicity of Taiwan to investigate the seismicity patterns prior to M>6 events. Based on this analysis, the authors recognize two types of events, the ones that experience seismic quiescence before the mainshock (Q-type) and the ones that show seismic activation prior to the mainshock (A-type). Although the results seem interesting, there are some major issues with the analysis, which are discussed in the following. Therefore, I recommend major revisions before the paper can be reconsidered for publication.
1) Revise the Introduction section and discuss the main objectives of the paper and how these will be accomplished.
2) The RTL algorithm is based on characteristic parameters, such as the characteristic distance and time. The authors adopt these parameters based on previous studies in Taiwan. However, it should be shown and discussed how sensitive are the results of the RTL algorithm on these parameters.
3) The authors discuss that a complete catalogue is a significant factor for the RTL analysis and use the events with M≥2.5. Is this the magnitude of completeness since 1991 for Taiwan? Please justify.
4) The results of the RTL analysis, presented in Fig.2, further show negative RTL values and seismic quiescence stages prior to the quiescence stage identified and marked by the authors. How can these stages affect future large events and the main conclusions of the paper?
5) The resolution of Fig.2 should be improved.
6) Discuss how the spatial variations of the b-value, shown in Fig.3, were calculated.
7) In Fig.3, spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity is still visible following large events, although the catalogue is declustered. Are the aftershocks effectively being removed?
8) Line 133. How the four years time span prior to the investigated events was selected?
9) Lines 139-143. How the criteria i) and ii) were selected? Are the results sensitive to these criteria?
10) In Fig. 4, explain what the colorbars represent. Similarly for Fig.6.
11) Overall, a better justification of the presented results is required.
Some minor comments to the text concern:
1) A few issues with English language throughout the text should be improved.
2) Spatiotemporal rather than Spatiotemporial.
3) In Page 2, Lines 32-34, refer to the full names of these methods before using the abbreviations. Also add a brief discussion to introduce them properly.
4) Add Rundle et al. (2000) to the list of references.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
Dear reviewer,
Thank you very much for reviewing our paper titled “ Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen”. We have read the review carefully and have accordingly made substantive modifications to the manuscript and explained the details in the response letter as the uploaded file. The manuscript was revised to address all changes marked in red.
Sincerely,
Yi-Ying Wen and co-authors
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
Status: closed
-
RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-114', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Apr 2022
Taiwan RTL paper review result
This paper applied a weighted analysis algorithm for time (T) / distance (R) and size of an earthquake (L) developed mainly by Sobolev and his Russian colleagues to a magnitude 6 class earthquake that occurred in Taiwan.
Major Problems:
The conclusion of this paper was drawn with only one RTL parameter. We know that even a small change in the RTL parameters can change the conclusion, which is dangerous. See Nagao et al (2011) for a comparison of multiple RTL parameters.
Both Sobolev et al. and Wyss reported that seismic quiescence occurs shortly before the impending earthquake (e.g., Wyss et al., 2004., Huang et al, 2001, Huang and Nagao, 2002).
Furthermore, it cannot be proved that the seismic quiescence that occurred many years ago is not related to the earthquake that occurred several years later, but it is meaningless for practical earthquake prediction.
The RTL value is the product of the standard deviations. It takes a value of -8 when it is -2 sigma in terms of time, -2 sigma in space, and -2 sigma in terms of the size of the earthquake. Sobolev et al., also find that the RTL value fluctuates and basically makes sense for the seismic quiescence that exceeds around -8.
Nagao et al (2011) proposed another algorithm for L in the RTL method (RTM algorithm). This is because L appears twice in the definition of L proposed by Sobolev et al. It seemed this dual appearance of Ri seems to be in contradiction to the original concept of the RTL algorithm.
Therefore, the reviewer has previously contacted Dr. Sobolev directly and asked, "Why does the distance (Ri) appear twice in L's formula?" Dr. Sobolev's answer was, "This is to make it easier to detect seismic activation."
This means that once a relatively large earthquake occurs in the vicinity of the RTL calculating point, the RTL value becomes large and discontinuous (e.g. Nagao et al., 2011).
Furthermore, although it is written in Japanese, there is a paper that seismic quiescence and activation occur in pairs (Matsumura, 2005). To briefly summarize Matsumura's hypothesis, "Seismic quiescence is recognized as a macro-scale view due to stress reallocation caused by activation of local seismic activity, and for the micro-scale, there seems a locally activated region does exist."
In the current content, it is hard to say that this paper properly uses the characteristics of the RTL algorithm, and it cannot be said that it explains the characteristics of Taiwan's seismic activity very much.
In conclusion, a major extensive revision is required, and it is judged that publication is not possible at the present stage.
Minor Problems:
Figure 2
q-type
Much greater quiescence than the authors point out as "quiet" has appeared before that. Furthermore, the quiescence value (RTL value) is extremely small, and it seems like a range of fluctuations.
a-type
Similar to the q-type, a large activation period may have appeared before that, or it may take more than a year and a half from the end of activation to the actual occurrence of an earthquake. The orange curve is drawn in the two graphs, but there is no explanation for it.
LINE 180:
Rundle et al., 2000 does not exist in the references. According to the authors, this paper describes the SOS model. There is no description of the self-organizing spinodal model in Rundle et al 2003.
References:
Nagao, T., A. Takeuchi and K. Nakamura, A new algorithm for the detection of seismic quiescence: introduction of the RTM algorithm, a modified RTL algorithm, Earth Planets Space, 63, 315-324, 2011.
Wyss, M, G. Sobolev, and J. D. Clippard, Seismic quiescence precursors to two M7 earthquakes on Sakhalin Island, measured by two methods, Earth Planets Space, 56, 725–740, 2004.
Huang, Q., Sobolev, G.A., T. Nagao, Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2 Kobe earthquake, January 17, 1995. Tectonophysics 337, 99-116, 2001.
Huang, Q. and T. Nagao, Seismic quiescence before the 2000 M=7.3 Tottori earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 12, 10.1029/2001GL013835, 2002.
Matsumura, S., Why does the precursory change of seismicity rate tend to be quiescence?, Zisin, 57, 441–444, 2005 (in Japanese with English Abstract).
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
Dear reviewer,
Thank you very much for reviewing our paper titled “ Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen”. We have read the review carefully and have accordingly made substantive modifications to the manuscript and explained the details in the response letter as the uploaded file. The manuscript was revised to address all changes marked in red.
Sincerely,
Yi-Ying Wen and co-authors
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
-
RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-114', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Apr 2022
In the paper by Wen et al., Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen, the RTL algorithm is applied to the seismicity of Taiwan to investigate the seismicity patterns prior to M>6 events. Based on this analysis, the authors recognize two types of events, the ones that experience seismic quiescence before the mainshock (Q-type) and the ones that show seismic activation prior to the mainshock (A-type). Although the results seem interesting, there are some major issues with the analysis, which are discussed in the following. Therefore, I recommend major revisions before the paper can be reconsidered for publication.
1) Revise the Introduction section and discuss the main objectives of the paper and how these will be accomplished.
2) The RTL algorithm is based on characteristic parameters, such as the characteristic distance and time. The authors adopt these parameters based on previous studies in Taiwan. However, it should be shown and discussed how sensitive are the results of the RTL algorithm on these parameters.
3) The authors discuss that a complete catalogue is a significant factor for the RTL analysis and use the events with M≥2.5. Is this the magnitude of completeness since 1991 for Taiwan? Please justify.
4) The results of the RTL analysis, presented in Fig.2, further show negative RTL values and seismic quiescence stages prior to the quiescence stage identified and marked by the authors. How can these stages affect future large events and the main conclusions of the paper?
5) The resolution of Fig.2 should be improved.
6) Discuss how the spatial variations of the b-value, shown in Fig.3, were calculated.
7) In Fig.3, spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity is still visible following large events, although the catalogue is declustered. Are the aftershocks effectively being removed?
8) Line 133. How the four years time span prior to the investigated events was selected?
9) Lines 139-143. How the criteria i) and ii) were selected? Are the results sensitive to these criteria?
10) In Fig. 4, explain what the colorbars represent. Similarly for Fig.6.
11) Overall, a better justification of the presented results is required.
Some minor comments to the text concern:
1) A few issues with English language throughout the text should be improved.
2) Spatiotemporal rather than Spatiotemporial.
3) In Page 2, Lines 32-34, refer to the full names of these methods before using the abbreviations. Also add a brief discussion to introduce them properly.
4) Add Rundle et al. (2000) to the list of references.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
Dear reviewer,
Thank you very much for reviewing our paper titled “ Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen”. We have read the review carefully and have accordingly made substantive modifications to the manuscript and explained the details in the response letter as the uploaded file. The manuscript was revised to address all changes marked in red.
Sincerely,
Yi-Ying Wen and co-authors
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yi-Ying Wen, 03 Jun 2022
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