Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the southeast coast of Spain

Giménez-García, Rubén; Ruiz-Álvarez, Víctor; García-Marín, Ramón

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134

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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134

Preprints

25 May 2021

| 25 May 2021

Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the southeast coast of Spain

Rubén Giménez-García, Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez, and Ramón García-Marín

Abstract. In recent years, flooding has become one of the main natural disasters which poses the greatest risk, impact and bearing on the coastal areas of southeast peninsular Spain. Traditionally, the analysis of torrential precipitation events that cause floods has been predominant in the assessment of the factors that lead to this type of catastrophe. At present, despite considering this meteorological phenomenon as the trigger of river overflows, responsibility corresponding to the human factor in the perpetration of the risk of a natural disaster should not be forgotten. This study will ascertain the influence of urban and real estate development in increasing exposure to floods. In this sense, the pluviometric observations obtained in different precipitation events have been counted, mapped and analysed. Likewise, the evolution and development of the real estate portfolio is examined. The information obtained has been crossed with the digital cartography of flooded areas (National System of Flood Zones Cartography, SNCZI in spanish acronym). The main finding of the study shows that there seems to be unquestionable evidence to attribute a good part of the existing risk to the territorial transformation and to the continuous process of artificialization of the soil recently carried out.

Received: 05 May 2021 – Discussion started: 25 May 2021

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

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Rubén Giménez-García, Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez, and Ramón García-Marín

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jun 2021

Dear authors,

please find attached the comments about your paper.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 18 Jun 2021
  
  Dear colleagues:
  
  We have just read the suggestions for improvement made by reviewer 1, and these are truly timely and will improve the paper. We are very grateful to this reviewer and to you for the excellent work you do to make this journal improve day by day and achieve top positions in the scientific field.
  
  Best regards.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC1
CC1:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Foudi Barth, 28 Jun 2021

The content of this paper is very similar to that of a published work https://www.age-geografia.es/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/crisis_globlalization_UGI_eng_2016_WEB.pdf (pages 92 to 103) but I have not found any reference to it in the manuscript.I think the authors should consider expanding the review of the bibliography.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC1
- AC2: 'Reply on CC1', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 28 Jun 2021
  
  Dear Colleague,
  
  thank you very much for your participation, as you rightly say, it is a work that analyses a similar line of research.
  
  We will take it into account, we will refer to it and we will compare the information obtained in our study with the one you indicate.
  Best regards and thank you very much again.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC2
CC2:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Alfredo Perez, 05 Jul 2021
The authors presented an assessment of exposure to flood hazard through a case study located in two municipalities in the Region of Murcia, Spain. Although this assessment seems well executed, according to my point of view, the work presents a series of weaknesses that should be taken into account before considering the publication:
I think the authors do not correctly distinguish the terms exposure and vulnerability. Throughout the text these terms are treated equally despite the fact that these terms are being agreed upon by the scientific community. There is no reference to this debate at work. In relation to the above, consult:

- Papathoma-Köhle, M., Thaler, T., & Fuchs, S. (2021). An institutional approach to vulnerability: evidence from natural hazard management in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044056.
- Cho, S. Y., & Chang, H. (2017). Recent research approaches to urban flood vulnerability, 2006–2016. Natural Hazards, 88(1), 633-649.
In my opinion, the authors do not detail the drawbacks of working with the cadastre for its use in assessing exposure to flood hazards. Nor do they consider the depth of floodplains. It is not the same for a cadastral parcel to be affected by a 1 cm deep flood than 1 m deep despite the fact that the return period in both cases is 500 years.

The applied methodology is neither novel nor original. The authors ignore and do not include previous references to works that use the same databases (cadastre/land registry and floodplains) and with which evaluations are carried out for study areas such as Holland or Spain:

Netherlands:
- Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G., & Botzen, W. J. (2015). Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management. Environmental science & policy, 47, 42-52.
Spain:
- López-Martínez, F., Pérez-Morales, A., & Illán-Fernández, E. J. (2020). Are local administrations really in charge of flood risk management governance? The Spanish Mediterranean coastline and its institutional vulnerability issues. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 63(2), 257-274.
The case study on which they apply the methodology has been previously evaluated with the same approach and methodology that the authors present in at least four previous Works that have not been referenced:

- Garcia-Ayllon, S., & Radke, J. (2021). Geostatistical Analysis of the Spatial Correlation between Territorial Anthropization and Flooding Vulnerability: Application to the DANA Phenomenon in a Mediterranean Watershed. Applied Sciences, 11(2), 809.
In my opinion, the conclusions are not the product of the stated results. Urban planning is discussed as responsible for increasing the exposure without having considered that spatial information from the two municipalities analyzed or from the regional or state legislation that organizes it.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC2
- CC3:
  'Reply on CC2', Alfredo Perez, 05 Jul 2021
  
  In any case, if the aforementioned indications are taken into account, the work deserves to be published in this journal since it is within its scope.
  Best regards
  Alfredo Pérez
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC3
  - AC3: 'Reply on CC3', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 15 Jul 2021
    
    Dear colleague,
    thank you very much for participating in the review process of our research work. All suggestions for improvement have been taken into account and tried to correct. Their contribution has contributed to developing and providing the document with a higher scientific level.
    
    Best regards.
    
    Ramón, Víctor y Rubén.
    
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC3
RC2:
'Review of nhess-2021-134', Dominik Paprotny, 24 Jul 2021
Dear Authors,

I reviewed your manuscript “Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the southeast coast of Spain” and I must admit straight away that my opinion about it is negative. It is related not as much to errors or weakness of the text or figures, which were largely listed by Reviewer #1, but by the wholesome value of the study. In this, I disagree with Reviewer #1. The topic of the influence of growing exposure on flood losses is very important, but the paper doesn’t contribute anything new here. Specifically:

The paper is a very narrow case study, consisting of 2 small municipalities, which Spain alone had 8131 as of 2020. This would be not a problem if something particularly interesting was happening in that location, but from the paper doesn’t appear to be the case, as there is no clear trend: depending on the scenario and municipality, newer building were more frequently built inside flood zones compared to those outside them, or not.

There is no connection made between the analysis of exposure of buildings and the historical events analysed earlier. Can the losses in 2016 and 2019 can be quantitatively shown to be increased by new constructions? Or that earlier events led to restricting of construction in flooded areas? Are any of the flood hazard map an approximation for the past events? How relevant are the exposure changes relative to climate change?

The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.

The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.

There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.

In summation, I have to answer negatively on several review criteria (nos. 2–6, 8–10, 13–14). Still, I encourage the authors to continue their research, as with more depth to the analysis, better connection to flood management and relevant literature in the field, a good and significant study can be achieved.

Kind regards,

Dominik Paprotny

Literature on the impact of growing flood exposure:

A.J. Stevens, D. Clarke, and R. J. Nicholls, Trends in reported flooding in the UK: 1884–2013, Hydrological Sciences Journal 61, 50 (2016).

S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg, A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 2127 (2015).

J.I. Barredo, D. Saurí, and M. C. Llasat, Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971–2008, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, 1723 (2012).

A.J. Stevens, D. Clarke, R. J. Nicholls, and M. P. Wadey, Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 1215 (2015).

G. Sofia, G. Roder, G. Dalla Fontana, and P. Tarolli, Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction, Scientific Reports 7, 40527 (2017).

B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts, Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Global Environmental Change 22, 823 (2012).

J. I. Barredo, Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, 97 (2009).

D. Paprotny, A. Sebastian, O. Morales Nápoles, and S. N. Jonkman, Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years, Nature Communications 9, 1985 (2018).

R. A. Pielke and M. W. Downton, Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932–97, Journal of Climate 13, 3625 (2000).

R. P. Crompton and K. J. McAneney, Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006, Environmental Science & Policy 11, 371 (2008).
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-RC2
- CC4:
  'Reply on RC2', Ramon García-Marín, 26 Jul 2021
  Dear colleague Dominik Paprotny:
  I reply to your comments briefly.
  EFFECTIVELY, IT IS A LIMITED CASE STUDY, BUT WITH GREAT REPERCUSSION THROUGHOUT SPAIN. THESE TWO MUNICIPALITIES, TOGETHER WITH ORIHUELA (A MUNICIPALITY IN THE NEIGHBORING PROVINCE OF ALICANTE) ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODS EVERY TIME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR, ALTHOUGH THESE RAINS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL.
  
  HERE YOU HAVE A VIDEO OF THE FLOODS:
  https://www.heraldo.es/multimedia/videos/nacional/los-alcazares-sufre-unas-inundaciones-peores-aun-que-las-de-2016/
  SOME PRESS NEWS IN NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS:
  https://www.eldiario.es/ballenablanca/crisis_climatica/inundaciones-gota-fria-medio-ambiente-agua-los-alcazares-murcia-cambio-climatico_1_1129921.html
  https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-01-26/los-alcazares-pueblo-murciano-inundaciones-lluvia_2426712/
  https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4075991/0/dana-murcia-alcazares-inundaciones-calles-anegadas-desalojos/
  AND GOVERNMENT AID FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES AFFECTED BY THE LATEST FLOODS:
  https://www.chsegura.es/va/confederacion/prensa-publicaciones-y-difusion/noticias/El-Consejo-de-Ministros-aprueba-subvenciones-para-los-municipios-del-Mar-Menor/
  https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-gobierno-impulsara-ayudas-para-evitar-inundaciones-municipios-cuenca-vertiente-mar-menor-202008260051_noticia.html
  There is no connection between the building exposure analysis and the historical facts discussed above. THANK YOU FOR THIS SUGGESTION. WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE PAPER.
  
  Can it be quantitatively demonstrated that losses in 2016 and 2019 increase with new construction? YES, THIS COULD BE DEMONSTRATED.
  Or what past events led to restricting construction in flooded areas? THIS IS THE PROBLEM, THERE HAVE BEEN NO RESTRICTIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW BUILDINGS.
  Are any of the flood hazard maps an approximation of past events? THAT MAPPING COULD BE DONE.
  How relevant are exposure changes in relation to climate change? THIS IS A COMPLEX ISSUE, BUT WITHOUT DOUBT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR HAS BEEN ACCELERATED IN RELATION TO POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
  The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. THESE ASPECTS COULD BE DEVELOPED IN THE PAPER WITHOUT PROBLEM, BUT IT IS NOT THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE WE WANT TO DEMONSTRATE. IF ALL THESE ASPECTS ARE DEVELOPED THE PAPER WOULD BE TOO EXTENSIVE!
  
  Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.
  THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JAVIER AND LOS ALCAZARES ARE TWO LOCALITIES THAT HAVE BASED THEIR ECONOMY ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF TOURIST RESIDENCES. THE EXPOSURE FACTOR INCREASES CONSEQUENTLY. AND THE INCREASE OF THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SOCIETY OR INVOLVED ACTORS: LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUILDING IN DANGER AREAS. ALSO, VULNERABILITY IS DETERMINED BY RESIDENTS WHO PURCHASE HOUSING IN FLOOD AREAS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE AN EDUCATION OR AWARENESS OF THE DANGER. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE TWO INTIMELY RELATED CONCEPTS. VULNERABILITY IS A COMPLEX CONCEPT AND VARIED IN ASPECTS THAT COMPOSE IT. IN THIS SENSE, WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT AND OFFER THE READER THE TIMELY EXPLANATIONS THAT YOU REFLECT IN YOUR COMMENTS.
  WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONNECTION BETWEEN TITLE, SUMMARY AND CONTENT IS TIMELY. WHAT WE PROPOSE IN THIS PAPER IS TO CHECK THAT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IN DANGER AREAS WILL LEAD TO A CATASTROPHE. AND THIS INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE LACK OF AN EFFECTIVE TERRITORIAL MANAGEMENT, THE LAST ONE DERIVED BY A VULNERABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF REGULATIONS AND LEGISLATION AND BY A LIMITED EDUCATION IN RELATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS. IT IS TRUE THAT WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT TO FACILITATE THE UNDERSTANDING OF THESE IDEAS. WE BELIEVE THIS PAPER IS OF INTEREST TO THE JOURNAL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FLOODS OCCURRED IN GERMANY, AND THAT IN A SOME WAY THE SPEECH IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE PROPOSED.
  The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.
  
  WE THANK THE REFEREE FOR THE BIBLIOGRAPHICAL CONTRIBUTIONS, WHICH WE WILL WITHOUT DOUBT READ CAREFULLY AND INCLUDE IN THIS PAPER.
  There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.
  
  WE CAN IMPROVE THE DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA. BUT WE ADVANCE THAT THE DATA IS OF THE HIGHEST QUALITY, THE BEST THAT WE CAN FIND TO PERFORM THIS ANALYSIS.
  FINALLY, WE WANT TO ADD THAT ACCORDING TO THE SUGGESTIONS MADE, THIS PAPER CAN BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED, AND IT COULD BE PUBLISHED IN THIS PRESTIGIOUS JOURNAL. PLEASE, WE ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER TO OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE AND FOLLOW THE REVIEW AND PUBLICATION PROCESS IN NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES.
  THANK YOU!
  Ramón García-Marín
  University of Murcia
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC4
- AC4:
  'Reply on RC2', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 04 Aug 2021
  Dear colleague Dominik Paprotny:
  as indicated by my colleague Ramón García Marín, co-author of this work:
  I reply to your comments briefly.
  EFFECTIVELY, IT IS A LIMITED CASE STUDY, BUT WITH GREAT REPERCUSSION THROUGHOUT SPAIN. THESE TWO MUNICIPALITIES, TOGETHER WITH ORIHUELA (A MUNICIPALITY IN THE NEIGHBORING PROVINCE OF ALICANTE) ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODS EVERY TIME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR, ALTHOUGH THESE RAINS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL.
  
  HERE YOU HAVE A VIDEO OF THE FLOODS:
  https://www.heraldo.es/multimedia/videos/nacional/los-alcazares-sufre-unas-inundaciones-peores-aun-que-las-de-2016/
  SOME PRESS NEWS IN NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS:
  https://www.eldiario.es/ballenablanca/crisis_climatica/inundaciones-gota-fria-medio-ambiente-agua-los-alcazares-murcia-cambio-climatico_1_1129921.html
  https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-01-26/los-alcazares-pueblo-murciano-inundaciones-lluvia_2426712/
  https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4075991/0/dana-murcia-alcazares-inundaciones-calles-anegadas-desalojos/
  AND GOVERNMENT AID FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES AFFECTED BY THE LATEST FLOODS:
  https://www.chsegura.es/va/confederacion/prensa-publicaciones-y-difusion/noticias/El-Consejo-de-Ministros-aprueba-subvenciones-para-los-municipios-del-Mar-Menor/
  https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-gobierno-impulsara-ayudas-para-evitar-inundaciones-municipios-cuenca-vertiente-mar-menor-202008260051_noticia.html
  There is no connection between the building exposure analysis and the historical facts discussed above. THANK YOU FOR THIS SUGGESTION. WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE PAPER.
  
  Can it be quantitatively demonstrated that losses in 2016 and 2019 increase with new construction? YES, THIS COULD BE DEMONSTRATED.
  Or what past events led to restricting construction in flooded areas? THIS IS THE PROBLEM, THERE HAVE BEEN NO RESTRICTIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW BUILDINGS.
  Are any of the flood hazard maps an approximation of past events? THAT MAPPING COULD BE DONE.
  How relevant are exposure changes in relation to climate change? THIS IS A COMPLEX ISSUE, BUT WITHOUT DOUBT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR HAS BEEN ACCELERATED IN RELATION TO POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
  The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. THESE ASPECTS COULD BE DEVELOPED IN THE PAPER WITHOUT PROBLEM, BUT IT IS NOT THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE WE WANT TO DEMONSTRATE. IF ALL THESE ASPECTS ARE DEVELOPED THE PAPER WOULD BE TOO EXTENSIVE!
  
  Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.
  THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JAVIER AND LOS ALCAZARES ARE TWO LOCALITIES THAT HAVE BASED THEIR ECONOMY ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF TOURIST RESIDENCES. THE EXPOSURE FACTOR INCREASES CONSEQUENTLY. AND THE INCREASE OF THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SOCIETY OR INVOLVED ACTORS: LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUILDING IN DANGER AREAS. ALSO, VULNERABILITY IS DETERMINED BY RESIDENTS WHO PURCHASE HOUSING IN FLOOD AREAS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE AN EDUCATION OR AWARENESS OF THE DANGER. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE TWO INTIMELY RELATED CONCEPTS. VULNERABILITY IS A COMPLEX CONCEPT AND VARIED IN ASPECTS THAT COMPOSE IT. IN THIS SENSE, WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT AND OFFER THE READER THE TIMELY EXPLANATIONS THAT YOU REFLECT IN YOUR COMMENTS.
  WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONNECTION BETWEEN TITLE, SUMMARY AND CONTENT IS TIMELY. WHAT WE PROPOSE IN THIS PAPER IS TO CHECK THAT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IN DANGER AREAS WILL LEAD TO A CATASTROPHE. AND THIS INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE LACK OF AN EFFECTIVE TERRITORIAL MANAGEMENT, THE LAST ONE DERIVED BY A VULNERABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF REGULATIONS AND LEGISLATION AND BY A LIMITED EDUCATION IN RELATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS. IT IS TRUE THAT WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT TO FACILITATE THE UNDERSTANDING OF THESE IDEAS. WE BELIEVE THIS PAPER IS OF INTEREST TO THE JOURNAL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FLOODS OCCURRED IN GERMANY, AND THAT IN A SOME WAY THE SPEECH IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE PROPOSED.
  The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.
  
  WE THANK THE REFEREE FOR THE BIBLIOGRAPHICAL CONTRIBUTIONS, WHICH WE WILL WITHOUT DOUBT READ CAREFULLY AND INCLUDE IN THIS PAPER.
  There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.
  
  WE CAN IMPROVE THE DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA. BUT WE ADVANCE THAT THE DATA IS OF THE HIGHEST QUALITY, THE BEST THAT WE CAN FIND TO PERFORM THIS ANALYSIS.
  FINALLY, WE WANT TO ADD THAT ACCORDING TO THE SUGGESTIONS MADE, THIS PAPER CAN BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED, AND IT COULD BE PUBLISHED IN THIS PRESTIGIOUS JOURNAL. PLEASE, WE ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER TO OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE AND FOLLOW THE REVIEW AND PUBLICATION PROCESS IN NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES.
  THANK YOU!
  Rubén Giménez García
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC4

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jun 2021

Dear authors,

please find attached the comments about your paper.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 18 Jun 2021
  
  Dear colleagues:
  
  We have just read the suggestions for improvement made by reviewer 1, and these are truly timely and will improve the paper. We are very grateful to this reviewer and to you for the excellent work you do to make this journal improve day by day and achieve top positions in the scientific field.
  
  Best regards.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC1
CC1:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Foudi Barth, 28 Jun 2021

The content of this paper is very similar to that of a published work https://www.age-geografia.es/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/crisis_globlalization_UGI_eng_2016_WEB.pdf (pages 92 to 103) but I have not found any reference to it in the manuscript.I think the authors should consider expanding the review of the bibliography.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC1
- AC2: 'Reply on CC1', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 28 Jun 2021
  
  Dear Colleague,
  
  thank you very much for your participation, as you rightly say, it is a work that analyses a similar line of research.
  
  We will take it into account, we will refer to it and we will compare the information obtained in our study with the one you indicate.
  Best regards and thank you very much again.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC2
CC2:
'Comment on nhess-2021-134', Alfredo Perez, 05 Jul 2021
The authors presented an assessment of exposure to flood hazard through a case study located in two municipalities in the Region of Murcia, Spain. Although this assessment seems well executed, according to my point of view, the work presents a series of weaknesses that should be taken into account before considering the publication:
I think the authors do not correctly distinguish the terms exposure and vulnerability. Throughout the text these terms are treated equally despite the fact that these terms are being agreed upon by the scientific community. There is no reference to this debate at work. In relation to the above, consult:

- Papathoma-Köhle, M., Thaler, T., & Fuchs, S. (2021). An institutional approach to vulnerability: evidence from natural hazard management in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044056.
- Cho, S. Y., & Chang, H. (2017). Recent research approaches to urban flood vulnerability, 2006–2016. Natural Hazards, 88(1), 633-649.
In my opinion, the authors do not detail the drawbacks of working with the cadastre for its use in assessing exposure to flood hazards. Nor do they consider the depth of floodplains. It is not the same for a cadastral parcel to be affected by a 1 cm deep flood than 1 m deep despite the fact that the return period in both cases is 500 years.

The applied methodology is neither novel nor original. The authors ignore and do not include previous references to works that use the same databases (cadastre/land registry and floodplains) and with which evaluations are carried out for study areas such as Holland or Spain:

Netherlands:
- Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G., & Botzen, W. J. (2015). Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management. Environmental science & policy, 47, 42-52.
Spain:
- López-Martínez, F., Pérez-Morales, A., & Illán-Fernández, E. J. (2020). Are local administrations really in charge of flood risk management governance? The Spanish Mediterranean coastline and its institutional vulnerability issues. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 63(2), 257-274.
The case study on which they apply the methodology has been previously evaluated with the same approach and methodology that the authors present in at least four previous Works that have not been referenced:

- Garcia-Ayllon, S., & Radke, J. (2021). Geostatistical Analysis of the Spatial Correlation between Territorial Anthropization and Flooding Vulnerability: Application to the DANA Phenomenon in a Mediterranean Watershed. Applied Sciences, 11(2), 809.
In my opinion, the conclusions are not the product of the stated results. Urban planning is discussed as responsible for increasing the exposure without having considered that spatial information from the two municipalities analyzed or from the regional or state legislation that organizes it.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC2
- CC3:
  'Reply on CC2', Alfredo Perez, 05 Jul 2021
  
  In any case, if the aforementioned indications are taken into account, the work deserves to be published in this journal since it is within its scope.
  Best regards
  Alfredo Pérez
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC3
  - AC3: 'Reply on CC3', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 15 Jul 2021
    
    Dear colleague,
    thank you very much for participating in the review process of our research work. All suggestions for improvement have been taken into account and tried to correct. Their contribution has contributed to developing and providing the document with a higher scientific level.
    
    Best regards.
    
    Ramón, Víctor y Rubén.
    
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC3
RC2:
'Review of nhess-2021-134', Dominik Paprotny, 24 Jul 2021
Dear Authors,

I reviewed your manuscript “Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the southeast coast of Spain” and I must admit straight away that my opinion about it is negative. It is related not as much to errors or weakness of the text or figures, which were largely listed by Reviewer #1, but by the wholesome value of the study. In this, I disagree with Reviewer #1. The topic of the influence of growing exposure on flood losses is very important, but the paper doesn’t contribute anything new here. Specifically:

The paper is a very narrow case study, consisting of 2 small municipalities, which Spain alone had 8131 as of 2020. This would be not a problem if something particularly interesting was happening in that location, but from the paper doesn’t appear to be the case, as there is no clear trend: depending on the scenario and municipality, newer building were more frequently built inside flood zones compared to those outside them, or not.

There is no connection made between the analysis of exposure of buildings and the historical events analysed earlier. Can the losses in 2016 and 2019 can be quantitatively shown to be increased by new constructions? Or that earlier events led to restricting of construction in flooded areas? Are any of the flood hazard map an approximation for the past events? How relevant are the exposure changes relative to climate change?

The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.

The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.

There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.

In summation, I have to answer negatively on several review criteria (nos. 2–6, 8–10, 13–14). Still, I encourage the authors to continue their research, as with more depth to the analysis, better connection to flood management and relevant literature in the field, a good and significant study can be achieved.

Kind regards,

Dominik Paprotny

Literature on the impact of growing flood exposure:

A.J. Stevens, D. Clarke, and R. J. Nicholls, Trends in reported flooding in the UK: 1884–2013, Hydrological Sciences Journal 61, 50 (2016).

S. Fuchs, M. Keiler, and A. Zischg, A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 2127 (2015).

J.I. Barredo, D. Saurí, and M. C. Llasat, Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971–2008, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, 1723 (2012).

A.J. Stevens, D. Clarke, R. J. Nicholls, and M. P. Wadey, Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 1215 (2015).

G. Sofia, G. Roder, G. Dalla Fontana, and P. Tarolli, Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction, Scientific Reports 7, 40527 (2017).

B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and J. C. J. H. Aerts, Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes, Global Environmental Change 22, 823 (2012).

J. I. Barredo, Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, 97 (2009).

D. Paprotny, A. Sebastian, O. Morales Nápoles, and S. N. Jonkman, Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years, Nature Communications 9, 1985 (2018).

R. A. Pielke and M. W. Downton, Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932–97, Journal of Climate 13, 3625 (2000).

R. P. Crompton and K. J. McAneney, Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006, Environmental Science & Policy 11, 371 (2008).
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-RC2
- CC4:
  'Reply on RC2', Ramon García-Marín, 26 Jul 2021
  Dear colleague Dominik Paprotny:
  I reply to your comments briefly.
  EFFECTIVELY, IT IS A LIMITED CASE STUDY, BUT WITH GREAT REPERCUSSION THROUGHOUT SPAIN. THESE TWO MUNICIPALITIES, TOGETHER WITH ORIHUELA (A MUNICIPALITY IN THE NEIGHBORING PROVINCE OF ALICANTE) ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODS EVERY TIME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR, ALTHOUGH THESE RAINS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL.
  
  HERE YOU HAVE A VIDEO OF THE FLOODS:
  https://www.heraldo.es/multimedia/videos/nacional/los-alcazares-sufre-unas-inundaciones-peores-aun-que-las-de-2016/
  SOME PRESS NEWS IN NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS:
  https://www.eldiario.es/ballenablanca/crisis_climatica/inundaciones-gota-fria-medio-ambiente-agua-los-alcazares-murcia-cambio-climatico_1_1129921.html
  https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-01-26/los-alcazares-pueblo-murciano-inundaciones-lluvia_2426712/
  https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4075991/0/dana-murcia-alcazares-inundaciones-calles-anegadas-desalojos/
  AND GOVERNMENT AID FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES AFFECTED BY THE LATEST FLOODS:
  https://www.chsegura.es/va/confederacion/prensa-publicaciones-y-difusion/noticias/El-Consejo-de-Ministros-aprueba-subvenciones-para-los-municipios-del-Mar-Menor/
  https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-gobierno-impulsara-ayudas-para-evitar-inundaciones-municipios-cuenca-vertiente-mar-menor-202008260051_noticia.html
  There is no connection between the building exposure analysis and the historical facts discussed above. THANK YOU FOR THIS SUGGESTION. WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE PAPER.
  
  Can it be quantitatively demonstrated that losses in 2016 and 2019 increase with new construction? YES, THIS COULD BE DEMONSTRATED.
  Or what past events led to restricting construction in flooded areas? THIS IS THE PROBLEM, THERE HAVE BEEN NO RESTRICTIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW BUILDINGS.
  Are any of the flood hazard maps an approximation of past events? THAT MAPPING COULD BE DONE.
  How relevant are exposure changes in relation to climate change? THIS IS A COMPLEX ISSUE, BUT WITHOUT DOUBT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR HAS BEEN ACCELERATED IN RELATION TO POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
  The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. THESE ASPECTS COULD BE DEVELOPED IN THE PAPER WITHOUT PROBLEM, BUT IT IS NOT THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE WE WANT TO DEMONSTRATE. IF ALL THESE ASPECTS ARE DEVELOPED THE PAPER WOULD BE TOO EXTENSIVE!
  
  Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.
  THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JAVIER AND LOS ALCAZARES ARE TWO LOCALITIES THAT HAVE BASED THEIR ECONOMY ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF TOURIST RESIDENCES. THE EXPOSURE FACTOR INCREASES CONSEQUENTLY. AND THE INCREASE OF THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SOCIETY OR INVOLVED ACTORS: LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUILDING IN DANGER AREAS. ALSO, VULNERABILITY IS DETERMINED BY RESIDENTS WHO PURCHASE HOUSING IN FLOOD AREAS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE AN EDUCATION OR AWARENESS OF THE DANGER. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE TWO INTIMELY RELATED CONCEPTS. VULNERABILITY IS A COMPLEX CONCEPT AND VARIED IN ASPECTS THAT COMPOSE IT. IN THIS SENSE, WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT AND OFFER THE READER THE TIMELY EXPLANATIONS THAT YOU REFLECT IN YOUR COMMENTS.
  WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONNECTION BETWEEN TITLE, SUMMARY AND CONTENT IS TIMELY. WHAT WE PROPOSE IN THIS PAPER IS TO CHECK THAT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IN DANGER AREAS WILL LEAD TO A CATASTROPHE. AND THIS INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE LACK OF AN EFFECTIVE TERRITORIAL MANAGEMENT, THE LAST ONE DERIVED BY A VULNERABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF REGULATIONS AND LEGISLATION AND BY A LIMITED EDUCATION IN RELATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS. IT IS TRUE THAT WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT TO FACILITATE THE UNDERSTANDING OF THESE IDEAS. WE BELIEVE THIS PAPER IS OF INTEREST TO THE JOURNAL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FLOODS OCCURRED IN GERMANY, AND THAT IN A SOME WAY THE SPEECH IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE PROPOSED.
  The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.
  
  WE THANK THE REFEREE FOR THE BIBLIOGRAPHICAL CONTRIBUTIONS, WHICH WE WILL WITHOUT DOUBT READ CAREFULLY AND INCLUDE IN THIS PAPER.
  There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.
  
  WE CAN IMPROVE THE DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA. BUT WE ADVANCE THAT THE DATA IS OF THE HIGHEST QUALITY, THE BEST THAT WE CAN FIND TO PERFORM THIS ANALYSIS.
  FINALLY, WE WANT TO ADD THAT ACCORDING TO THE SUGGESTIONS MADE, THIS PAPER CAN BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED, AND IT COULD BE PUBLISHED IN THIS PRESTIGIOUS JOURNAL. PLEASE, WE ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER TO OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE AND FOLLOW THE REVIEW AND PUBLICATION PROCESS IN NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES.
  THANK YOU!
  Ramón García-Marín
  University of Murcia
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-CC4
- AC4:
  'Reply on RC2', RUBEN GIMENEZ GARCIA, 04 Aug 2021
  Dear colleague Dominik Paprotny:
  as indicated by my colleague Ramón García Marín, co-author of this work:
  I reply to your comments briefly.
  EFFECTIVELY, IT IS A LIMITED CASE STUDY, BUT WITH GREAT REPERCUSSION THROUGHOUT SPAIN. THESE TWO MUNICIPALITIES, TOGETHER WITH ORIHUELA (A MUNICIPALITY IN THE NEIGHBORING PROVINCE OF ALICANTE) ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODS EVERY TIME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR, ALTHOUGH THESE RAINS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL.
  
  HERE YOU HAVE A VIDEO OF THE FLOODS:
  https://www.heraldo.es/multimedia/videos/nacional/los-alcazares-sufre-unas-inundaciones-peores-aun-que-las-de-2016/
  SOME PRESS NEWS IN NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS:
  https://www.eldiario.es/ballenablanca/crisis_climatica/inundaciones-gota-fria-medio-ambiente-agua-los-alcazares-murcia-cambio-climatico_1_1129921.html
  https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-01-26/los-alcazares-pueblo-murciano-inundaciones-lluvia_2426712/
  https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4075991/0/dana-murcia-alcazares-inundaciones-calles-anegadas-desalojos/
  AND GOVERNMENT AID FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES AFFECTED BY THE LATEST FLOODS:
  https://www.chsegura.es/va/confederacion/prensa-publicaciones-y-difusion/noticias/El-Consejo-de-Ministros-aprueba-subvenciones-para-los-municipios-del-Mar-Menor/
  https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-gobierno-impulsara-ayudas-para-evitar-inundaciones-municipios-cuenca-vertiente-mar-menor-202008260051_noticia.html
  There is no connection between the building exposure analysis and the historical facts discussed above. THANK YOU FOR THIS SUGGESTION. WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE PAPER.
  
  Can it be quantitatively demonstrated that losses in 2016 and 2019 increase with new construction? YES, THIS COULD BE DEMONSTRATED.
  Or what past events led to restricting construction in flooded areas? THIS IS THE PROBLEM, THERE HAVE BEEN NO RESTRICTIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW BUILDINGS.
  Are any of the flood hazard maps an approximation of past events? THAT MAPPING COULD BE DONE.
  How relevant are exposure changes in relation to climate change? THIS IS A COMPLEX ISSUE, BUT WITHOUT DOUBT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR HAS BEEN ACCELERATED IN RELATION TO POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
  The study only analyses buildings and their area, without giving any consideration or providing the reader an idea as to the function of those, population living in them, their economic value or amount of economic activity taking place there, who built them or how flood management in the area works. Whenever such aspects are mentioned, there are taken from literature. THESE ASPECTS COULD BE DEVELOPED IN THE PAPER WITHOUT PROBLEM, BUT IT IS NOT THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE WE WANT TO DEMONSTRATE. IF ALL THESE ASPECTS ARE DEVELOPED THE PAPER WOULD BE TOO EXTENSIVE!
  
  Consequently, the whole conclusion section has no relation to the paper. Just one most striking example: “The study carried out reveals how, in order to cover the growing residential needs of the tourist boom in coastal areas, San Javier is disproportionately increasing its real estate portfolio, spreading urban development over areas at obvious risk of flooding, which increases exposure and vulnerability of the infrastructure and population.” But the study doesn’t make any analysis of vulnerability (only exposure), doesn’t mention infrastructure or population, doesn’t show that residential or tourism-related building are the ones more frequently built on floodplains, and also suggests that the municipality owns and has built all buildings, thus showing no lessons were learnt from past floods. Similarly, the title or abstract has little connection with the actual contents of the paper.
  THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JAVIER AND LOS ALCAZARES ARE TWO LOCALITIES THAT HAVE BASED THEIR ECONOMY ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF TOURIST RESIDENCES. THE EXPOSURE FACTOR INCREASES CONSEQUENTLY. AND THE INCREASE OF THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SOCIETY OR INVOLVED ACTORS: LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUILDING IN DANGER AREAS. ALSO, VULNERABILITY IS DETERMINED BY RESIDENTS WHO PURCHASE HOUSING IN FLOOD AREAS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT HAVE AN EDUCATION OR AWARENESS OF THE DANGER. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE TWO INTIMELY RELATED CONCEPTS. VULNERABILITY IS A COMPLEX CONCEPT AND VARIED IN ASPECTS THAT COMPOSE IT. IN THIS SENSE, WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT AND OFFER THE READER THE TIMELY EXPLANATIONS THAT YOU REFLECT IN YOUR COMMENTS.
  WE BELIEVE THAT THE CONNECTION BETWEEN TITLE, SUMMARY AND CONTENT IS TIMELY. WHAT WE PROPOSE IN THIS PAPER IS TO CHECK THAT THE INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IN DANGER AREAS WILL LEAD TO A CATASTROPHE. AND THIS INCREASE IN THE EXPOSURE FACTOR IS DETERMINED BY THE LACK OF AN EFFECTIVE TERRITORIAL MANAGEMENT, THE LAST ONE DERIVED BY A VULNERABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF REGULATIONS AND LEGISLATION AND BY A LIMITED EDUCATION IN RELATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS. IT IS TRUE THAT WE COULD IMPROVE THE TEXT TO FACILITATE THE UNDERSTANDING OF THESE IDEAS. WE BELIEVE THIS PAPER IS OF INTEREST TO THE JOURNAL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FLOODS OCCURRED IN GERMANY, AND THAT IN A SOME WAY THE SPEECH IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE PROPOSED.
  The study doesn’t mention at all any studies on the impact on growing exposure, many of which were carried out from local to global scales. Therefore, it is not possible to say if the area studied is in any way related to trends in exposure-adjusted flood losses in Spain or Europe. Below I list some literature that I suggested checking for context.
  
  WE THANK THE REFEREE FOR THE BIBLIOGRAPHICAL CONTRIBUTIONS, WHICH WE WILL WITHOUT DOUBT READ CAREFULLY AND INCLUDE IN THIS PAPER.
  There is very little description of the data (including their quality), which is largely caused by the fact that the study is, in essence, a simple intersection of two datasets provided by government agencies.
  
  WE CAN IMPROVE THE DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA. BUT WE ADVANCE THAT THE DATA IS OF THE HIGHEST QUALITY, THE BEST THAT WE CAN FIND TO PERFORM THIS ANALYSIS.
  FINALLY, WE WANT TO ADD THAT ACCORDING TO THE SUGGESTIONS MADE, THIS PAPER CAN BE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED, AND IT COULD BE PUBLISHED IN THIS PRESTIGIOUS JOURNAL. PLEASE, WE ASK THAT YOU CONSIDER TO OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE AND FOLLOW THE REVIEW AND PUBLICATION PROCESS IN NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES.
  THANK YOU!
  Rubén Giménez García
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134-AC4

Rubén Giménez-García, Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez, and Ramón García-Marín

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Short summary

In recent decades the Mediterranean coast has experienced an increase in vulnerability and exposure to the danger of torrential rains. The significant increase in the number of floods and their consequent damage to the coastal belt, according to precipitation records, is related to a multiplication of exposure and vulnerability to these events, rather than an increase in extreme rainfall phenomena.


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