Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-309
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-309

  12 Nov 2018

12 Nov 2018

Review status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS. A final paper is not foreseen.

Spatial variability and potential maximum intensity of winter storms over Europe

Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch
  • University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, B15 2TT, UK

Abstract. Extra–tropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal time scales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members a broad, physically consistent statistical base can be created. This large sample can thus be used to assess the uncertainty of extreme wind storm features such as intensity or severity more accurately. In particular return periods and even a potential maximum intensity of windstorms and extra–tropical cyclones (ETCs) can be calculated depending on a specific cluster or region in Europe. A 100-year event minimum core pressure in Central Europe, for example, is estimated to be around 940 hPa, whereas it would be around 928 hPa for the British Isles. By employing extreme value statistics a potential minimum core pressure (maximum curvature) can be estimated as well. This is way below (above) a 1000-year event however, it can therefore be seen more as a physical barrier than a realistic scenario.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch

Interactive discussion

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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch

Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch

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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
Extra-tropical windstorms represent one of the biggest natural hazards for Europe. In this paper we use a method to categorise the tracks (based on the shape of the track) of these storms into three different groups. The characteristics of the storms in each of the three groups is then analysed with regards to size, duration or intensity. By using extreme-value statistics we can further estimate what would be a maximum intensity storm for each of the three groups.
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