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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-129
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-129
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  11 Jun 2018

11 Jun 2018

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This preprint has been retracted.

Drought Risk Assessment by Using Drought Hazard and Vulnerability Indexes

Ismail Dabanli1,2 Ismail Dabanli
  • 1Istanbul Medipol University, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Civil Engineering Department, 34810, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 2Clemson University, Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson, 29634, SC, USA

Abstract. Drought has multiple impacts on socioeconomic sectors and it is expected to increase in the coming years due to non-stationary nature of climate variability and change. Here, we investigated drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk based on hydro-meteorological and actual socio-economic data for provinces of Turkey. Although, drought vulnerability and risk assessment are essential parts of drought phenomenon, so far, lack of proper integrated drought risk assessment in Turkey (and elsewhere) has led to higher socio-economic impacts. Firstly, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI) is derived based on the probability occurrences of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to facilitate the understanding of drought phenomenon. Secondly, the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is calculated by utilizing four socio-economic indicators to quantify drought impact on society. Finally, the Drought Risk Index (DRI) is obtained by multiplying DHI and DVI for provinces of Turkey to highlight the relative importance of hazard and vulnerability assessment for drought risk management. A set of drought hazard, vulnerability, and composite risk maps were then developed. The outputs of analysis reveal that among 81 administrative provinces in Turkey, 73 provinces are exposed to the low drought risk (0 < DRI < 0.25), 6 provinces to the moderate drought risk (0.25 < DRI < 0.50), and 1 province (Konya) to the high drought risk (0.50 < DRI < 0.75). These maps can assist stakeholders to identify the regions vulnerable to droughts, thus helping in development of mitigation strategies as well as effective water resources management in a consistently drought prone provinces.

This preprint has been retracted.

Ismail Dabanli

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Ismail Dabanli

Ismail Dabanli

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Short summary
In this research drought risk in Turkey were analyzed by using drought hazard and vulnerability indexes. The methodology is developed in the first time for calculating aforementioned indexes. Results illustrate that, not only climatic variables but also social characteristic of region are essential for drought risk assessment. Results also shows that If drought hazard index is lower and drought vulnerability index is high, drought risk may higher.
In this research drought risk in Turkey were analyzed by using drought hazard and vulnerability...
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