Status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS but the revision was not accepted.
An extended stochastic method for seismic hazard estimation
A. K. Abd el-aal,M. A. El-Eraki,and S. I. Mostafa
Abstract. In this contribution, we developed an extended stochastic technique for seismic hazard assessment purposes. This technique depends on the hypothesis of stochastic technique of Boore (2003) "Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method. Appl. Geophy. 160:635–676". The essential characteristics of extended stochastic technique are to obtain and simulate ground motion in order to minimize future earthquake consequences. The first step of this technique is defining the seismic sources which mostly affect the study area. Then, the maximum expected magnitude is defined for each of these seismic sources. It is followed by estimating the ground motion using an empirical attenuation relationship. Finally, the site amplification is implemented in calculating the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at each site of interest. We tested and applied this developed technique at Cairo, Suez, Port Said, Ismailia, Zagazig and Damietta cities to predict the ground motion. Also, it is applied at Cairo, Zagazig and Damietta cities to estimate the maximum peak ground acceleration at actual soil conditions. In addition, 0.5, 1, 5, 10 and 20 % damping median response spectra are estimated using the extended stochastic simulation technique. The calculated highest acceleration values at bedrock conditions are found at Suez city with a value of 44 cm s−2. However, these acceleration values decrease towards the north of the study area to reach 14.1 cm s−2 at Damietta city. This comes in agreement with the results of previous studies of seismic hazards in northern Egypt and is found to be comparable. This work can be used for seismic risk mitigation and earthquake engineering purposes.
Received: 14 Oct 2015 – Discussion started: 21 Dec 2015
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In this work, a new extended stochastic simulation technique is developed basing on the stochastic method of Boore (2003) to simulate ground motion in order to minimize future earthquake consequences. This method is applied here to simulate the expected ground motion at some sites in the north-eastern part of Egypt. The results of the simulation give the highest hazardous effect at the south-eastern and the southern parts of the study area. The hazard is diminishes to the north of the study area
In this work, a new extended stochastic simulation technique is developed basing on the...
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