Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014

  14 Aug 2014

14 Aug 2014

Review status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS but the revision was not accepted.

Floods in the Niger basin – analysis and attribution

V. Aich1, B. Koné2, F. F. Hattermann1, and E. N. Müller3 V. Aich et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Wetlands International, Mali Office, Mopti, Mali
  • 3Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. This study addresses the increasing flood risk in the Niger basin and assesses the damages that arise from flooding. Statistics from three different sources (EM-DAT, Darthmouth Flood Observatory, NatCat Munich RE) on people affected by floods show positive trends for the entire basin beginning in the 1980s. An assessment of four subregions across the Niger basin indicates even exponential trends for the Sahelian and Sudanian regions. These positive trends for flooding damage match up to a time series of annual maximum discharge (AMAX): the strongest trends in AMAX are detected in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions, where the population is also increasing the fastest and vulnerability generally appears to be very high. The joint effect of these three factors can possibly explain the exponential increase in people affected by floods in these subregions. In a second step, the changes in AMAX are attributed to changes in precipitation and land use via a data-based approach within a hypothesis-testing framework. Analysis of rainfall, heavy precipitation and the runoff coefficient shows a coherent picture of a return to wet conditions in the basin, which we identify as the main driver of the increase in AMAX in the Niger basin. The analysis of flashiness (using the Richards–Baker Index) and the focus on the "Sahel Paradox" of the Sahelian region reveal an additional influence of land-use change, but it seems minor compared to the increase in precipitation.

V. Aich et al.

 
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Status: closed
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

V. Aich et al.

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