Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013
16 Dec 2013
 | 16 Dec 2013
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS but the revision was not accepted.

An attempt to deal with flash floods using a probabilistic hydrological nowcasting chain: a case study

F. Silvestro, N. Rebora, and G. Cummings

Abstract. The forecast of flash floods is sometimes impossible. In the last two decades, Numerical Weather Prediction Systems have become increasingly reliable with very relevant improvements in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasts. However, some types of events, those that are intense and localized in small areas, are still very difficult to predict. In many cases meteorological models fail to predict the volume of precipitable water at the large scale. Despite the application of modern probabilistic chains that uses precipitation downscaling algorithms in order to forecast the streamflow, some significant flood events remain unpredicted. This was also the case with an event which occurred on 8 and 9 June 2011 in the eastern part of the Liguria Region, Italy. This event affected in particular the Entella basin, which is quite a small watershed that flows into the Mediterranean Sea.

The application of a hydrological nowcasting chain as a tool for predicting flash-floods in small and medium size basins with an anticipation time of a few hours (2–5) is here presented. This work investigated the "behaviour" of the chain in the cited event and how it could be exploited for operational purposes. The results in this particular case were encouraging.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
F. Silvestro, N. Rebora, and G. Cummings
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
F. Silvestro, N. Rebora, and G. Cummings
F. Silvestro, N. Rebora, and G. Cummings

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