Articles | Volume 8, issue 6
24 Nov 2008
 | 24 Nov 2008

Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?

O. Molchanov

Abstract. Using case study of earthquake (EQ) activity and war conflicts in Caucasus during 1975–2002 time interval and correlation analysis of global distribution of damaging EQs and war-related social tension during 1901–2005 period we conclude:

  • There is a statistically reliable increase of social tension several years (or several months in case study) before damaging EQs,
  • There is evident decrease of social tension several years after damaging EQs, probably due to society consolidation,
  • Preseismic effect is absent for the large EQs in unpopulated areas,
  • There is some factual background for legendary belief in Almighty retribution for social abnormal behavior.