Articles | Volume 3, issue 1/2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 129–134, 2003
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-129-2003

Special issue: Landslides and related phenomena: Rainfall triggered landslides...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 129–134, 2003
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-129-2003

  30 Apr 2003

30 Apr 2003

Time independent seismic hazard analysis of Greece deduced from Bayesian statistics

T. M. Tsapanos1, G. A. Papadopoulos2, and O. Ch. Galanis1 T. M. Tsapanos et al.
  • 1Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, 54006 Thessaloniki, Greece
  • 2Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece

Abstract. A Bayesian statistics approach is applied in the seismogenic sources of Greece and the surrounding area in order to assess seismic hazard, assuming that the earthquake occurrence follows the Poisson process. The Bayesian approach applied supplies the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude of Ms = 6.0 will be exceeded in time intervals of 10, 20 and 75 years. We also produced graphs which present the different seismic hazard in the seismogenic sources examined in terms of varying probability which is useful for engineering and civil protection purposes, allowing the designation of priority sources for earthquake-resistant design. It is shown that within the above time intervals the seismogenic source (4) called Igoumenitsa (in NW Greece and west Albania) has the highest probability to experience an earthquake with magnitude M > 6.0. High probabilities are found also for Ochrida (source 22), Samos (source 53) and Chios (source 56).

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