Articles | Volume 16, issue 9
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2177–2187, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2177–2187, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016

Research article 28 Sep 2016

Research article | 28 Sep 2016

Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments

Chung-Han Chan Chung-Han Chan
  • Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

Abstract. This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.

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This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. These insights into the applications of forecasting models could provide key information regarding seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.
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