Research article
01 Oct 2015
Research article | 01 Oct 2015
An interdisciplinary perspective on social and physical determinants of seismic risk
K.-H. E. Lin1,2, Y.-C. Chang3, G.-Y. Liu4, C.-H. Chan5, T.-H. Lin6, and C.-H. Yeh4
K.-H. E. Lin et al.
K.-H. E. Lin1,2, Y.-C. Chang3, G.-Y. Liu4, C.-H. Chan5, T.-H. Lin6, and C.-H. Yeh4
- 1George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610, USA
- 2Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Sec. 2, Taipei 115, Taiwan
- 3Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University,1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan
- 4National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, 200 Xinhai Road, Sec. 3, Taipei 106, Taiwan
- 5Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University N2-01A-14, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore
- 6Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Sec. 2, Taipei 115, Taiwan
- 1George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610, USA
- 2Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Sec. 2, Taipei 115, Taiwan
- 3Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University,1 Roosevelt Road, Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan
- 4National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, 200 Xinhai Road, Sec. 3, Taipei 106, Taiwan
- 5Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University N2-01A-14, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore
- 6Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Sec. 2, Taipei 115, Taiwan
Correspondence: Y.-C. Chang (yichunchang.tw@gmail.com)
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Received: 27 Nov 2014 – Discussion started: 27 Jan 2015 – Revised: 31 Aug 2015 – Accepted: 31 Aug 2015 – Published: 01 Oct 2015
While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs three statistical models to test different determinants that affect disaster fatality at the village level, including seismic hazard, exposure of population and fragile buildings, and demographic and socioeconomic vulnerability. The Poisson regression model is used to estimate the impact of these factors on fatalities. Research results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on seismic fatality, some indicators of vulnerability, such as gender ratio, percentages of young and aged population, income and its standard deviation, are the important determinants deteriorating seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters.