Temporal clustering of the seismicity of the Absheron-Prebalkhan region in the Caspian Sea area

Abstract. The historical and instrumental catalog of the Absheron-Prebalkhan region in the Caspian Sea area was analyzed in order to reveal the existence of temporal clustering in the time dynamics of the seismicity. The timespan of the catalog is from 1842 to 2012 and the magnitude of the events ranges from 2.5 to 6.8. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis indicates 4.0 as the completeness magnitude of the catalog. The temporal clustering analysis was performed over the sequence of events with magnitude M ≥ 4 by using the methods of the Allan Factor and the coefficient of variation. Both the methods have revealed the presence of time-clusterized structures in the time dynamics of large events in the Absheron-Prebalkhan region. Such findings, which suggest a non-Poissonian behavior of the seismicity of the investigated area, could contribute to a deeper knowledge of the time dynamics of the seismicity and to a better assessment of the relative seismic hazard.