Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 151–163, 2012
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 151–163, 2012

Research article 17 Jan 2012

Research article | 17 Jan 2012

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy

A. Grezio1, P. Gasparini2,3, W. Marzocchi4, A. Patera4, and S. Tinti5 A. Grezio et al.
  • 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy
  • 2AMRA Scarl, Via Nuova Agnano 12, 80012 Naples, Italy
  • 3Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università di Napoli, "Federico II", Naples, Italy
  • 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
  • 5Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofisica, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Abstract. We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.