Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-107-2012
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-107-2012
Research article
 | 
11 Jan 2012
Research article |  | 11 Jan 2012

Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

U. Hancilar

Abstract. Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

Download
Altmetrics