Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 107–119, 2012

Special issue: New developments in tsunami science: from hazard to risk

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 107–119, 2012

Research article 11 Jan 2012

Research article | 11 Jan 2012

Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

U. Hancilar1,2 U. Hancilar
  • 1Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 2European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA), Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission – JRC, Ispra, Italy

Abstract. Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.