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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 10, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 383–394, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-383-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: The RISKMED Project (Weather Risk Reduction in the Central...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 383–394, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-383-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  25 Feb 2010

25 Feb 2010

Weather forecast in north-western Greece: RISKMED warnings and verification of MM5 model

A. Bartzokas1, V. Kotroni2, K. Lagouvardos2, C. J. Lolis1, A. Gkikas1, and M. I. Tsirogianni1 A. Bartzokas et al.
  • 1Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece
  • 2Institute of Environmental Research, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Abstract. The meteorological model MM5 is applied operationally for the area of north-western Greece for one-year period (1 June 2007–31 May 2008). The model output is used for daily weather forecasting over the area. An early warning system is developed, by dividing the study area in 16 sub-regions and defining specific thresholds for issuing alerts for adverse weather phenomena. The verification of the model is carried out by comparing the model results with observations from three automatic meteorological stations. For air temperature and wind speed, correlation coefficients and biases are calculated, revealing that there is a significant overestimation of the early morning air temperature. For precipitation amount, yes/no contingency tables are constructed for 4 specific thresholds and some categorical statistics are applied, showing that the prediction of precipitation in the area under study is generally satisfactory. Finally, the thunderstorm warnings issued by the system are verified against the observed lightning activity.

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