Articles | Volume 10, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2039–2050, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2039-2010

Special issue: Understanding dynamics and current developments of climate...

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2039–2050, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2039-2010

  05 Oct 2010

05 Oct 2010

Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future

E. Hertig, S. Seubert, and J. Jacobeit E. Hertig et al.
  • Institute for Geography, University of Augsburg, Germany

Abstract. Trends of Mediterranean extreme temperatures are analysed for the period 1961–1990 based on daily station time series. Increases can be identified in the western Mediterranean area, whereas an opposite trend becomes apparent for the eastern Mediterranean region. Assessments of the 95th percentile of maximum temperatures in summer and of the 5th percentile of minimum temperatures in winter for the 21st century under enhanced greenhouse warming conditions are performed by means of statistical downscaling techniques. Mainly increases of both extreme indices result from these assessments, but considerable differences arise when using different predictors or predictor combinations, respectively. Furthermore, the results give strong indications that changes in temperature extremes do not follow a simple shift of the whole temperature distribution to higher values.

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