Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate

Harris, G. R.; Collins, M.; Sexton, D. M. H.; Murphy, J. M.; Booth, B. B. B.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010

Articles | Volume 10, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010

© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Applying ensemble climate change projections for assessing...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010

© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 10, issue 9

29 Sep 2010

| 29 Sep 2010

Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate

G. R. Harris, M. Collins, D. M. H. Sexton, J. M. Murphy, and B. B. B. Booth

Abstract. We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.

Received: 10 Dec 2009 – Revised: 07 Jul 2010 – Accepted: 05 Sep 2010 – Published: 29 Sep 2010