Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-86
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-86
10 Jun 2024
 | 10 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Predicting Deep-Seated Landslide Displacements in Mountains through the Integration of Convolutional Neural Networks and Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer

Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang

Abstract. Deep-seated landslides, becoming increasingly frequent due to changing climate patterns, pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure. This research contributes to developing predictive early warning systems for deep-seated slope displacements, employing advanced computational models for environmental risk management. Our novel framework integrates machine learning, time series deep learning, and convolutional neural networks (CNN), enhanced by the Age of Exploration-Inspired Optimizer (AEIO) algorithm. Our approach demonstrates exceptional forecasting capabilities by utilizing eight years of comprehensive data—including displacement, groundwater levels, and meteorological information from the Lushan Mountain region in Taiwan. The AEIO-MobileNet model stands out for its precision in predicting imminent slope displacements with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.81 %. These advancements significantly enhance geohazard informatics by providing reliable and efficient landslide risk assessment and management tools. These safeguard road networks, construction projects, and infrastructure within vulnerable slope areas.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang

Status: open (until 22 Jul 2024)

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Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang
Jui-Sheng Chou, Hoang-Minh Nguyen, Huy-Phuong Phan, and Kuo-Lung Wang

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Short summary
This study enhances landslide prediction using advanced machine learning, including new algorithms inspired by historical explorations. The research accurately forecasts landslide movements by analyzing eight years of data from Taiwan's Lushan Mountain, improving early warnings and potentially saving lives and infrastructure. This integration marks a significant advancement in environmental risk management.
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