Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds to Warning Daily Landslide Hazard in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Peng, Bo; Wu, Xueling

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109

Preprints

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109

Preprints

19 Jul 2024

| 19 Jul 2024

Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds to Warning Daily Landslide Hazard in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Bo Peng and Xueling Wu

Abstract. Rainfall is intrinsically connected to the incidence of landslide catastrophes. Exploring the ideal rainfall threshold model (RTM) for an area in order to determine the rainfall warning level (RWL) for the region for daily landslide hazard warning (LHW) is critical for precise prevention and management of local landslides. In this paper, a method for calculating rainfall thresholds using multilayer perceptron (MLP) regression is proposed for 453 rainfall-induced landslides. First, the study area was divided into subareas based on topography and climate conditions. Then, two methods, MLP and ordinary least squares (OLS), were utilized to explore the optimal RTM for each subregion. Subsequently, 11 factors along with three models were selected to predict landslide susceptibility (LS). Finally, to obtain daily LHW result for the study area, a superposition matrix was employed to overlay the daily RWL with the ideal LS prediction results. The following are the study's findings: (1) The optimal RTMs and calculation methods are different for different subregions. (2) The Three-dimensional convolutional neural network model produces more accurate LS prediction results. (3) The daily LHW was validated using anticipated rainfall data for July 19, 2020, and the validation results proved the correctness of the LHW results and RTM.

Received: 07 Jun 2024 – Discussion started: 19 Jul 2024

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

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Bo Peng and Xueling Wu

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on nhess-2024-109', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Jul 2024

This paper proposes a method for calculating rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides using the Multilayer Perceptron regression method and the feasibility of this method has been verified. In addition, the authors use a large amount of data and various data-driven modeling techniques. The research results have practical significance for the early warning and prevention of rainfall-induced landslides. It is recommended that the paper be published after revisions, addressing the following comments:
1. The originality of the study is not prominently highlighted in the abstract. It is recommended to enhance this aspect.
2. The use of the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for analyzing rainfall thresholds is a commendable innovation. However, since this method has been widely used in other fields, it would suffice to mention it with appropriate references. The MLP framework in Figure 1 is relatively simple and takes up significant space; consider removing it.
3. Given the length of the article and the complexity of the methods and procedures involved, it is suggested that the authors create a flowchart to further elucidate the methodological steps.
4. The paper mentions dividing the study area based on topography and climate, followed by partial merging based on the number of historical disasters. It is suggested to include the final regional division results in Figure 4 to avoid any ambiguity.
5. In Table 6, the categories of slope structures are represented by A-H, which is unclear and it is recommended to change them to professional terms.
6. In Table 7, the units of some landslide susceptibility factors are given, but the units for factors such as road density are missing.
7. There are many images in the article. Consider combining some of them for display.
8. Some descriptions of the figures, such as the explanation of different colors in Figure 9 in lines 223-224, should be moved from the main text to the figure captions.
9. The clarity of Figure 14 is insufficient. It is recommended to change the layout from three columns to two columns.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xueling Wu, 03 Aug 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_1.pdf).
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  Yours sincerely,
  
  Xueling Wu
  
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC1
- AC2: 'Additional response to RC1', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to express our sincere gratitude for the thoughtful and constructive feedback provided on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). Your initial comments were extremely valuable and have significantly contributed to the improvement of our paper.
  
  Since our last submission in response to your comments, we have received feedback from the second reviewer. Based on this new feedback, we have made further revisions to our manuscript. These adjustments have led to changes in the content and line numbers of our previous responses to your review.
  
  We have uploaded a revised point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_1_new.pdf). This document reflects the most recent modifications and includes updated explanations and references to the changes made.
  
  We sincerely appreciate your continued patience and understanding. We hope that the revised manuscript and our updated responses will address your concerns satisfactorily.
  
  Thank you once again for your invaluable input and support.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC2
RC2:
'Comment on nhess-2024-109', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Aug 2024

In the MS titled "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds to Warning Daily Landslide Hazard in Three Gorges Reservoir Area", the authors tried to propose a rainfall threshold for predicting landslides on a daily scale. The topic fits the journal's scope while the entire MS was poorly structured, and the methods were not clearly explained. Hence a major revision is suggested.
Major comments:
1. There were too many abbreviations, making the MS hard to follow. Please reduce them to a reasonable number (less than 10).
2. The historical landslides were divided into 2 groups. For those that occurred during the dry season (41), "only rainfall thresholds for dry season landslides were calculated for the entire study area". The authors should explain what are the contributing factors for those dry season landslides? What kind of role of these factors are playing during the rainy season?
3. Following the above question, the water level fluctuation, and the underground water level might be important factors. But these factors had not been considered in section 4.2.1 or Table 5 "Source of data on landslide inducing factors".
4. In Table 5, the human engineering activities were indicated using "road density", which seems not reasonable, unless it can be clearly figured out from the landslide inventory.
5. The methodology and the framework should be elaborated using a figure. It reads confusing as it includes too many results (Figs. 7-20, Tables 1-8) using several methods from machine learning to threshold curve yielding in different zones.
6. Some of the figures are useless, such as Figures 1-2. Some of the figures should be combined.
7. Try to find a fault map and include it in Figure 3, it's important and should not be ignored in this mountainous area.
8. The details of the rainfall data should be introduced, including the covering period, the temporal resolution, etc.
9. The Thiessen polygon method was adopted to delineate the study area and the rainfall station (Figure 5), but it is not convincing. The zonation of the rainfall was also conducted (Figure 4). Why two methods were applied for one factor?
10. In Figure 8, as the landslide data is not sufficient, the rainfall threshold results are derived using scattered E-D points. So, why do the authors have to conduct the zonation of rainfall stations?
11. Figure 9 shows the E-D-R threshold model for a specific zone, that is, Z13. Why only Z13?
12. "Warning Daily Landslide Hazard" reads confusing. I guess the authors want to emphasize the warning was daily, but why?
Specific comments:
The writing should be significantly improved. There were too many grammars and typos. The terms should be defined accurately, for instance, "the third dimension indicator 'rainfall for the day' (R)".

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-RC2
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_2.pdf).
  
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC3
- AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_2.pdf).
  
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC4

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on nhess-2024-109', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Jul 2024

This paper proposes a method for calculating rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides using the Multilayer Perceptron regression method and the feasibility of this method has been verified. In addition, the authors use a large amount of data and various data-driven modeling techniques. The research results have practical significance for the early warning and prevention of rainfall-induced landslides. It is recommended that the paper be published after revisions, addressing the following comments:
1. The originality of the study is not prominently highlighted in the abstract. It is recommended to enhance this aspect.
2. The use of the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for analyzing rainfall thresholds is a commendable innovation. However, since this method has been widely used in other fields, it would suffice to mention it with appropriate references. The MLP framework in Figure 1 is relatively simple and takes up significant space; consider removing it.
3. Given the length of the article and the complexity of the methods and procedures involved, it is suggested that the authors create a flowchart to further elucidate the methodological steps.
4. The paper mentions dividing the study area based on topography and climate, followed by partial merging based on the number of historical disasters. It is suggested to include the final regional division results in Figure 4 to avoid any ambiguity.
5. In Table 6, the categories of slope structures are represented by A-H, which is unclear and it is recommended to change them to professional terms.
6. In Table 7, the units of some landslide susceptibility factors are given, but the units for factors such as road density are missing.
7. There are many images in the article. Consider combining some of them for display.
8. Some descriptions of the figures, such as the explanation of different colors in Figure 9 in lines 223-224, should be moved from the main text to the figure captions.
9. The clarity of Figure 14 is insufficient. It is recommended to change the layout from three columns to two columns.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xueling Wu, 03 Aug 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_1.pdf).
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  Yours sincerely,
  
  Xueling Wu
  
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC1
- AC2: 'Additional response to RC1', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to express our sincere gratitude for the thoughtful and constructive feedback provided on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). Your initial comments were extremely valuable and have significantly contributed to the improvement of our paper.
  
  Since our last submission in response to your comments, we have received feedback from the second reviewer. Based on this new feedback, we have made further revisions to our manuscript. These adjustments have led to changes in the content and line numbers of our previous responses to your review.
  
  We have uploaded a revised point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_1_new.pdf). This document reflects the most recent modifications and includes updated explanations and references to the changes made.
  
  We sincerely appreciate your continued patience and understanding. We hope that the revised manuscript and our updated responses will address your concerns satisfactorily.
  
  Thank you once again for your invaluable input and support.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC2
RC2:
'Comment on nhess-2024-109', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Aug 2024

In the MS titled "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds to Warning Daily Landslide Hazard in Three Gorges Reservoir Area", the authors tried to propose a rainfall threshold for predicting landslides on a daily scale. The topic fits the journal's scope while the entire MS was poorly structured, and the methods were not clearly explained. Hence a major revision is suggested.
Major comments:
1. There were too many abbreviations, making the MS hard to follow. Please reduce them to a reasonable number (less than 10).
2. The historical landslides were divided into 2 groups. For those that occurred during the dry season (41), "only rainfall thresholds for dry season landslides were calculated for the entire study area". The authors should explain what are the contributing factors for those dry season landslides? What kind of role of these factors are playing during the rainy season?
3. Following the above question, the water level fluctuation, and the underground water level might be important factors. But these factors had not been considered in section 4.2.1 or Table 5 "Source of data on landslide inducing factors".
4. In Table 5, the human engineering activities were indicated using "road density", which seems not reasonable, unless it can be clearly figured out from the landslide inventory.
5. The methodology and the framework should be elaborated using a figure. It reads confusing as it includes too many results (Figs. 7-20, Tables 1-8) using several methods from machine learning to threshold curve yielding in different zones.
6. Some of the figures are useless, such as Figures 1-2. Some of the figures should be combined.
7. Try to find a fault map and include it in Figure 3, it's important and should not be ignored in this mountainous area.
8. The details of the rainfall data should be introduced, including the covering period, the temporal resolution, etc.
9. The Thiessen polygon method was adopted to delineate the study area and the rainfall station (Figure 5), but it is not convincing. The zonation of the rainfall was also conducted (Figure 4). Why two methods were applied for one factor?
10. In Figure 8, as the landslide data is not sufficient, the rainfall threshold results are derived using scattered E-D points. So, why do the authors have to conduct the zonation of rainfall stations?
11. Figure 9 shows the E-D-R threshold model for a specific zone, that is, Z13. Why only Z13?
12. "Warning Daily Landslide Hazard" reads confusing. I guess the authors want to emphasize the warning was daily, but why?
Specific comments:
The writing should be significantly improved. There were too many grammars and typos. The terms should be defined accurately, for instance, "the third dimension indicator 'rainfall for the day' (R)".

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-RC2
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_2.pdf).
  
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC3
- AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Xueling Wu, 01 Sep 2024
  
  MS No. NHESS-2024-109
  Peng Bo and Xueling Wu: "Optimizing Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Thresholds for Daily Landslide Hazard Warnings in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area."
  
  Dear Editor and Reviewer,
  
  We would like to thank you and the reviewer for your positive and constructive comments on our manuscript (ID: NHESS-2024-109). These comments are highly valuable and have been very helpful in revising and improving our paper. We have carefully considered these comments and have made the necessary corrections accordingly, which we hope meet with your approval.
  
  We have uploaded a point-by-point response to the reviewer's comments as supplementary material (filename: response_2.pdf).
  
  We appreciate the dedicated efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewer, and we hope that our revisions will be satisfactory. Once again, thank you for your invaluable and helpful comments and suggestions.
  
  Yours sincerely,
  Xueling Wu
  School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
  No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-109-AC4

Bo Peng and Xueling Wu

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Short summary

Our research enhances landslide prevention using advanced machine learning to forecast heavy rainfall-triggered landslides. By analyzing regions and employing various models, we identified optimal ways to predict high-risk rainfall events. Integrating multiple factors and models, including a neural network, significantly improves landslide predictions. Real data validation confirms our approach's reliability, aiding communities in mitigating landslide impacts and safeguarding lives and property.


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