Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-30
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-30
06 Jul 2023
 | 06 Jul 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: A case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas

Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi

Abstract. In some instances, a strong aftershock can cause more damage than the mainshock. Ignoring the influence of aftershocks may underestimate the seismic hazard of some areas. Taking Xichang and its surrounding areas as an example, and based on the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China (GB18306-2015), this study used the Monte Carlo method to simulate the synthetic mainshock sequences. Additionally, the Omi-Reasenberg-Jones (Omi-R-J) aftershock activity model is used to simulate the aftershock sequences that follow mainshocks above a certain magnitude threshold. Then, the mainshock and the aftershocks are combined to calculate the regional seismic hazard using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Finally, the influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis is examined and considered. The results show that in areas with moderate to strong seismic backgrounds, the influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %. These results suggest that the impact of aftershocks should be properly considered for future probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, especially in areas with moderate to strong seismic activity backgrounds and in areas prone to secondary disasters such as landslides and mudslides.

Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Qing Wu, 25 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Matteo Taroni, 18 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Qing Wu, 19 Oct 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Oct 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Qing Wu, 20 Oct 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Qing Wu, 25 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Matteo Taroni, 18 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Qing Wu, 19 Oct 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2023-30', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Oct 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Qing Wu, 20 Oct 2023
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi

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Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimates the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi-R-J model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
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