Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-80
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-80
 
07 Apr 2022
07 Apr 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain

Diego Fernández-Nóvoa1, Orlando García-Feal1,2, José González-Cao1, Maite deCastro1, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira1 Diego Fernández-Nóvoa et al.
  • 1Environmental PHYSics LABoratory (EPhysLab), CIM-UVIGO, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain
  • 2Water and Environmental Engineering Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Universidade da Coruña, A Coruña, Spain

Abstract. River floods, which are one of the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide, have increased in intensity and frequency in recent decades as a result of climate change, and the future scenario is expected to be even worse. Therefore, their knowledge, predictability, and mitigation represent a key challenge for the scientific community in the coming decades, especially in those local areas that are most vulnerable to these extreme events. In this sense, a multiscale analysis is essential to obtain detailed maps of the future evolution of floods. In the multiscale analysis, the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project are used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) which, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+). This integration allows knowing the projected future changes in the flow pattern of the river, as well as analyzing the impact of floods in vulnerable areas through the flood hazard maps obtained with hydraulic simulations. The multiscale analysis is applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to the city of Ourense. The results show a delay in the flood season and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme river flows in the Miño-Sil basin, which will cause more situations of flooding in many areas frequented by pedestrians and in important infrastructures of the city of Ourense. In addition, an increase in water depths associated with future floods was also detected, confirming the trend for future floods to be not only more frequent but also more intense. Detailed maps of the future evolution of floods also provide key information to decision-makers to take effective measures in advance in those areas most vulnerable to flooding in the coming decades. Although the methodology presented is applied to a particular area, its strength lies in the fact that its implementation in other basins and cities is simple, also taking into account that all the models used are freely accessible.

Diego Fernández-Nóvoa et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-80', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 May 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Diego Fernandez-Novoa, 30 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-80', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Diego Fernandez-Novoa, 30 Jun 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2022-80', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 May 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Diego Fernandez-Novoa, 30 Jun 2022

Diego Fernández-Nóvoa et al.

Diego Fernández-Nóvoa et al.

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Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) which, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
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