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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-74
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-74
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  22 Apr 2020

22 Apr 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

A New View on Risk of Typhoon Occurrence in the Western North Pacific

Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch
  • School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

Abstract. To study high impact tropical cyclone (TC) is of crucial importance due to its extraordinary destruction potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust risk assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach, using data from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive with the application of impact-oriented tracking algorithm, to build a physically consistent high impact typhoon event set with non-realised TC events – data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set is consistent to the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ~ 100 and ~ 77 times more Very Severe Typhoons and Violent Typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard risk assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.

Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch

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Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch

Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch

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Latest update: 29 Sep 2020
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Short summary
Of severe tropical cyclones (TCs) lead to devastating losses. Nevertheless, to construct a robust risk assessment is difficult based on historical TC records only. This paper addresses this issue by introducing a computationally simple approach, using operational ensemble forecasts to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. This method will be of high relevance for insurance and disaster risk reduction applications.
Of severe tropical cyclones (TCs) lead to devastating losses. Nevertheless, to construct a...
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