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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-362
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-362
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  16 Nov 2020

16 Nov 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification

Chiara Marsigli1,2, Elizabeth Ebert3, Raghavendra Ashrit4, Barbara Casati5, Jing Chen6, Caio A. S. Coelho7, Manfred Dorninger8, Eric Gilleland9, Thomas Haiden10, Stephanie Landman11, and Marion Mittermaier12 Chiara Marsigli et al.
  • 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, 63067, Germany
  • 2Arpae Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 40122, Italy
  • 3Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, 3008, Australia
  • 4National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida, 201307, India
  • 5MRD/ECCC, Dorval (QC), H9P 1J3, Canada
  • 6Center of Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Beijing, 100081, China
  • 7Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, 12630-000, Brazil
  • 8University of Vienna, Vienna, 1090, Austria
  • 9Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80301, Colorado, U.S.A.
  • 10ECMWF, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
  • 11South African Weather Service, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
  • 12MetOffice, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract. Verification of high-impact weather is needed by the Meteorological Centres, but how to perform it still presents many open questions, starting from which data are suitable as reference. This paper reviews new observations which can be considered for the verification of high-impact weather, and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. Two high-impact weather phenomena are considered: Thunderstorm and fog. First, a framework for the verification of high-impact weather is proposed, including the definition of forecast and observations in this context and creation of a verification set. Then, new observations showing a potential for the detection and quantification of high-impact weather are reviewed, including remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and claim/damage reports from insurance companies. The observation characteristics which are relevant for their usage in forecast verification are also discussed. Examples of forecast evaluation and verification are then presented, highlighting the methods which can be adopted to address the issues posed by the usage of these non-conventional observations and objectively quantify the skill of a high-impact weather forecast.

Chiara Marsigli et al.

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Chiara Marsigli et al.

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Short summary
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather, and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. New observations include: remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and reports from insurance companies. This work has been performed in the framework of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of WMO.
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather, and provides...
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