NHESS - recent papers

Simulation of sliding deadwood logs in mountain forests: towards a quantitative hazard assessment

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Simulation of sliding deadwood logs in mountain forests: towards a quantitative hazard assessment
Joël Borner, Peter Bebi, Leon J. Bührle, Adrian Ringenbach, and Remco I. Leine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4843–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4843-2026, 2026
Deadwood supports biodiversity and contributes to the protective function of mountain forests, but under certain conditions it can itself become a hazard when sliding downslope. This study examines when and why sliding deadwood occurs and how far it can travel. Using a physics-based simulation model and forest data, we show that sliding is favoured by steep slopes, wet surfaces, and specific decay stages, helping identify where hazards can be reduced while preserving protective forest functions.

Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches
Emma Holmberg and Leonardo Olivetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4825–4842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026, 2026
The health burden of extreme heat necessitates the development of effective early warning systems. These systems depend critically on the underlying weather forecasts. We compare forecasts of temperature-related mortality based on data-driven weather forecasts with those based on physics-based weather forecasts for summer 2024 in Europe. We find that forecasts based on data-driven weather forecasts could represent a promising avenue for the development of heat-related health impact forecasts.

Building-level exposure asset value modelling for Germany: an Ahrweiler case study

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Building-level exposure asset value modelling for Germany: an Ahrweiler case study
Aaron Buhrmann, Nivedita Sairam, Cecilia I. Nievas, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4785–4805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4785-2026, 2026
Our research lays the groundwork for the next generation of disaster risk modelling by improving how building-level value and use are estimated across Germany. By testing multiple data sources and methods, we identify a transparent, adaptable approach that enhances forecasts of damage and recovery – helping to protect lives, property, and communities.

Spatiotemporal patterns of global earthquake disaster impacts from a human-Earth perspective

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Spatiotemporal patterns of global earthquake disaster impacts from a human-Earth perspective
Zekang Zhang, Yingqiao Qiu, Yanjun Ye, and Chaoran Xuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4807–4824, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4807-2026, 2026
Earthquakes cause major losses worldwide, but their impacts differ across regions. Using global disaster records from 1980 to 2024, this study shows that while recorded disasters and economic losses increased, deaths declined relative to population size. Social and economic conditions are linked to disaster impacts, highlighting the importance of resilience planning.

A quantitative methodology for analysing physical damage and recovery dynamics from concurrent and consecutive hazards: forensic insights from Puerto Rico

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

A quantitative methodology for analysing physical damage and recovery dynamics from concurrent and consecutive hazards: forensic insights from Puerto Rico
Alessandro Borre, Daria Ottonelli, Eva Trasforini, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Roberto Rudari, Giacomo Zoppi, Giorgio Boni, and Silvia De Angeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4763–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4763-2026, 2026
This study presents a quantitative method to capture how damage caused by concurrent and consecutive hazard events evolves, including how earlier damage and ongoing recovery affect later events. Applied to a sequence of hurricanes and earthquakes in Puerto Rico, it shows that ignoring residual damage significantly underestimates the impacts caused by consecutive events. By accounting for recovery and interaction effects, the method supports more realistic damage assessment and risk planning.

Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood after the 2020 Lake Fire

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Seasonal influence on post-fire debris flow likelihood after the 2020 Lake Fire
Jeng-Hann Chong, Adit Ghosh, Brandon T. Page, Greg Jesmok, Denise V. Berg, Marlene Lopez, Deepshikha Upadhyay, David J. Stone, Scott C. Hauswirth, Eric O. Lindsey, and Louis A. Scuderi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4723–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4723-2026, 2026
Post-fire debris flows or mudflows, can occur during intense rainfall following wildfires. Yet, it remains unclear how seasonal variation affects debris-flow initiation years after the fire. Using simulations of the 2020 Lake Fire in California, we show that debris-flow likelihood varies drastically between drier and wetter months, even four years after the fire. This study highlights the need to consider climatic and seasonal patterns in post-fire debris-flow assessment.

RHITA: a web tool for real-time detection of extreme weather events

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

RHITA: a web tool for real-time detection of extreme weather events
Greta Cazzaniga, Anastasia Akakpo-Numado, Patrick Brockmann, Adrien Burq, Mathieu Vrac, and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4741-2026, 2026
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, creating a strong need for rapid and reliable information. We developed an open tool that automatically detects and tracks heatwaves, cold spells, heavy rain, and strong winds across Europe, both in real time and in past decades. By comparing current events with long historical records, the tool shows how unusual an event is and reveals clear increases in heatwaves, while other hazards show more mixed changes.

Brief communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River – a multifaceted post event analysis of 4 July 2025, flood in Central Texas

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Brief communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River – a multifaceted post event analysis of 4 July 2025, flood in Central Texas
Anupal Baruah, Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Mohamed Abdelkader, Dipsikha Devi, Yixian Chen, Humberto Vergara, and Riley McDermott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4753–4762, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4753-2026, 2026
We investigated the Central Texas flash flood on July 2025 to understand why forecasts underestimated its severity. We analyzed operational streamflow forecasts and evaluate flood inundation maps against benchmark flood extent from High Water Mark. Results show that peak flooding was missed due to spatial error in rainfall and failures in monitoring stations, leading to an underestimation of impacts. We highlight the need for uncertainty aware flood predictions to support emergency response.

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4663–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4663-2026, 2026
European windstorm damages varied by a factor three over recent multidecadal periods, and a better understanding of these changes could improve how this risk is managed. Here, we explored the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols (AA) using results from climate model experiments, and found AA boosted European wind losses by an average of 45 % in the late 20th century, though varying from zero to 100 % between the six models. Validation data suggest the signal may be at the higher end of this range.

Spatial machine learning modelling reveals that soil indicators and tree type best explain shallow landslide release

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Spatial machine learning modelling reveals that soil indicators and tree type best explain shallow landslide release
Denise Christina Rüther, Kristine Flacké Haualand, Iris Louisa Johanna Peeters, and Mark Andrew Kusk Gillespie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4675–4721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4675-2026, 2026
We use several machine learning models to explore which factors best explain landslide release during an extreme rainfall event in eastern Norway. As landslides often occur in clusters, methods must be chosen carefully to account for any spatial effects. When considering this, we find that south-facing slopes, thicker soils and more water made landslides most likely. On forested slopes, landslides are most likely in deciduous rather than spruce or pine stands.

Managed aquifer recharge in confined multi-layer aquifers: a scalable framework for drought resilience in central Europe

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Managed aquifer recharge in confined multi-layer aquifers: a scalable framework for drought resilience in central Europe
Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali Abdelrahman, Hagen Koch, Mobarok Hossain, Ronjon Heim, Clara Hauke, and Irina Engelhardt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4641–4661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4641-2026, 2026
Facing water scarcity, the Berlin-Brandenburg region explored underground water storage to capture excess surface water during wet periods and store it in deep aquifers for use during droughts. We identified extensive areas suitable for storage and found substantial downstream water availability under ecological flow constraints. The approach could help offset local water demand and provide a cost-effective, transferable strategy for strengthening water security in other water-stressed regions.

Characteristics of extreme snowfall–wind-gust events in Finland (1960–2024): frequency, duration, and intensity

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Characteristics of extreme snowfall–wind-gust events in Finland (1960–2024): frequency, duration, and intensity
Taru Olsson, Terhi K. Laurila, Ari Aaltonen, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4621–4640, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4621-2026, 2026
Strong winds coinciding with heavy snowfall can damage infrastructure, disrupt daily life and threaten safety. We examined how often these events occur in Finland and how long-lasting and severe they are, using reanalysis data. Such events were most common in coastal and eastern areas and usually short, while long and intense cases were rare. These events can challenge energy supply and essential services, highlighting the need to consider combined weather hazards in societal risk planning.

Reliability analysis method for soil slopes permanent displacement under mainshock–aftershock sequences

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Reliability analysis method for soil slopes permanent displacement under mainshock–aftershock sequences
Tianyi Wang, Chengda Zhang, Jiangwei Zhang, Su Chen, and Zhijun Dai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4611–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4611-2026, 2026
Earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, which are frequently the decisive trigger for landslides. While current research mainly focuses on mainshock-induced landslides but overlooks aftershocks. This study develops a reliability analysis method for seismic sequences using the Probability Density Evolution Method. The method effectively captures the role of aftershocks and enables more accurate assessment of slope performance, offering significant value for earthquake disaster prevention.

Invited Perspectives: Science for Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Invited Perspectives: Science for Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management
Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kees Boersma, Tomris Cesuroglu, Nathan Clark, Tina Comes, Ashok Dahal, Sonja Fransen, Jasper Verschuur, Carmen Anthonj, Srijith Balakrishnan, Jens de Bruijn, Eefje Hendriks, Rodrigo Mena Fluhmann, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Anja Schreijer, and Nicole van Maanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4589–4609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4589-2026, 2026
We explore five core challenges that need to be addressed in order to move towards the Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management approach. This approach has been proposed within the newly emerging paradigm of a more holistic approach to managing the risks associated with climatic and/or non-climatic hazards and non-climatic risk drivers. We elaborate on each challenge, discuss why they matter for comprehensive disaster risk management, and provide ideas of how to overcome them.

A methodological workflow for the identification of earthquake sources from macroseismic data

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

A methodological workflow for the identification of earthquake sources from macroseismic data
Veronica Gironelli, Lucia Luzi, Andrea Antonucci, and Andrea Rovida
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4569–4588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4569-2026, 2026
We present a methodological workflow for identifying the sources of large earthquakes using macroseismic data. This approach includes macroseismic field pre-processing and revision of earthquake parameters. The application to both instrumental and historical earthquakes is illustrated through selected case studies. This approach provides a useful tool for reconstructing seismogenic sources and generating realistic shaking scenarios for past events, with implications for seismic hazard assessment.

A fluvial flood risk model for quantifying the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

A fluvial flood risk model for quantifying the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty
Mara Ruf, Amelie Hoffmann, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4549–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4549-2026, 2026
We developed a flood risk model that estimates the benefit of mitigation measures under uncertainty. The model is computationally efficient and is embedded in a framework that separates the influence of natural from model-related uncertainties. It allows the comparison of (combined) measures and thus provides a robust basis for decision-making. We applied the flood risk model to the Bavarian Danube, Germany, to assess the effectiveness of a flood detention basin.

Infra-Net: a robust parallel decision-making network for discriminating natural hazards and anthropogenic infrasound events via multi-view feature learning

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Infra-Net: a robust parallel decision-making network for discriminating natural hazards and anthropogenic infrasound events via multi-view feature learning
Hongru Li, Xihai Li, Jihao Liu, Shengjie Luo, and Yun Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4529–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4529-2026, 2026
This study focuses on improving the monitoring of natural disasters like volcanic eruptions and earthquakes using infrasound. We developed a model called Infra-Net to better identify these events. By analyzing sound from multiple angles and combining different perspectives, our system accurately distinguishes natural hazards from human activity. This research provides a more reliable way to detect early warning signs of disasters, helping to improve global safety through more precise monitoring.

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 1: Mapping method and data analysis

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 1: Mapping method and data analysis
Andrea Bevilacqua, Patrizia Landi, Paola Del Carlo, Augusto Neri, and Massimo Pompilio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4479–4502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4479-2026, 2026
This study investigates how far projectiles are thrown during major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli volcano. The researchers analyzed 67 events spanning about 150 years to study the distances, directions, and areas affected by these projectiles, based on an extensive review of historical, observational, and monitoring data, and by using an innovative approach to map affected areas.

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps
Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Patrizia Landi, Paola Del Carlo, Massimo Pompilio, and Peter Baxter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4503–4527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026, 2026
Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the probability of different areas being affected by ballistic fallout from volcanic eruptions in Stromboli, Italy. Hazard maps were developed for both major explosions and paroxysms as well as for the two categories combined together by assuming a relative proportion. By using a temporal model of the explosive events, first probability maps of ballistic fallout in the next 10 and 50 years are finally presented.

Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:31:25 +0200

Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides
Flavia Ferriero, Fausto Guzzetti, and Warner Marzocchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4457–4477, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4457-2026, 2026
Landslides cause thousands of deaths and billions in damages yearly, yet predicting them remains a major challenge. We developed a Bayesian method that estimates landslide probability as a function of rainfall, explicitly accounting for uncertainty. Applied in southern Italy, landslide probability increases gradually with rainfall, with no sharp thresholds in the triggering conditions. This approach supports a more uncertainty-aware landslide risk management.