NHESS - recent papers

Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions – a study focused on Burundi

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions – a study focused on Burundi
Jess L. Delves, Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Jesica Piñon, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Mateo Moreno, Maria Belen Benito Oterino, Eduardo Perez, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1347–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1347-2026, 2026
This scientific paper presents a multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. The study identifies key risk hotspots with estimated economic losses of 92 million USD (2.5 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)). Climate change projections indicate increased precipitation. The paper highlights data limitations and stresses the need for improved hazard models and the consideration of compounding risks in future assessments.

Topographic profile and morphology analysis of shallow landslides inside and outside of forests with a semi-automatic mapping approach and bi-temporal airborne laser scanning data

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Topographic profile and morphology analysis of shallow landslides inside and outside of forests with a semi-automatic mapping approach and bi-temporal airborne laser scanning data
Lotte de Vugt, Thomas Zieher, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Frank Perzl, Marc Adams, and Martin Rutzinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1375–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1375-2026, 2026
We performed an analysis on semi-automatically mapped shallow landslide scarps and forest cover in the Sellrain valley, Tyrol (Austria), to investigate how the morphology and topographic profiles of landslides are affected by the forest. The results show that landslides located in dense forest cover occurred on steeper slopes and were deeper than others. The results also show that the use of forest stand density parameters, such as tree spacing, enhanced the found differences in the study area.

Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan
Yusuke Hiraga, Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua, Shunji Kotsuki, Yoshiharu Suzuki, Shu-Hua Chen, Atsushi Hamada, Kazuaki Yasunaga, and Takuya Funatomi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1287–1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026, 2026
Can disasters caused by extreme rainfall be mitigated through human intervention? Using numerical simulations reproducing a devastating rainfall event, we show that injecting large amounts of ice nuclei into convective clouds can trigger an “overseeding” effect that suppresses raindrop growth. This process disperses intense rainfall downstream and reduces peak 3-hour rainfall by up to 32 %, highlighting the potential of cloud seeding as a new strategy for mitigating heavy rainfall disasters.

Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): current picture, tendencies and impact

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): current picture, tendencies and impact
Maria Kireeva, Mirjana Radulović, Gordan Mimić, Marthe Wens, and Tijana Nikolić-Lugonja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1305–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1305-2026, 2026
Droughts pose a major threat to Europe’s food security, yet adaptation lags behind rapid climate shifts. This paper reviews ten years of drought research in nine Southeast European countries using SCOPUS data, identifying major gaps—especially in Montenegro, Albania, Slovenia, and North Macedonia. Using CDI v4 and EDID data, it highlights regional drought patterns and the legacy of drought impacts.

Reducing risk together: moving towards a more holistic approach to multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Reducing risk together: moving towards a more holistic approach to multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management
Philip J. Ward, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Judith N. Claassen, James Daniell, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Julius Schlumberger, Timothy Tiggeloven, Silvia Torresan, Nicole van Maanen, Andrew Warren, Carmen D. Álvarez-Albelo, Vanessa Banks, Benjamin Blanz, Veronica Casartelli, Jordan Correa, Julia Crummy, Anne Sophie Daloz, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Juan José Díaz-Hernández, Jaime Díaz-Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Davide Ferrario, David Geurts, Sara García-González, Joel C. Gill, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Wiebke S. Jäger, Abel López-Díez, Lin Ma, Jaroslav Mysiak, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Noemi Padrón Fumero, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Karina Reiter, Jana Sillmann, Lara Smale, and Tristian Stolte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1325–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1325-2026, 2026
Disasters often result from interactions between different hazards, like floods triggering landslides, or earthquakes followed by tropical cyclones, so-called multi-hazards. People and societies are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to these multi-hazards. Assessing these aspects is referred to as multi-risk assessment and management. In this paper we synthesise key learnings from the MYRIAD-EU (Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the E.U.) project, reflecting on progress and challenges faced in addressing multi-hazards and multi-risk.

Critical evaluation of strong ground motions in Izmir and implications for future earthquake simulation results

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Critical evaluation of strong ground motions in Izmir and implications for future earthquake simulation results
Şahin Çağlar Tuna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1231–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1231-2026, 2026
This study investigates strong ground motions recorded in Izmir to understand how earthquakes interact with local soil conditions. By comparing observed records with design spectra and simulated motions, we identify differences between expected and actual shaking levels. The findings show that local ground effects can significantly influence seismic response, emphasizing the need for improved hazard assessment and more reliable earthquake-resistant design in urban areas.

Understanding the combined mental health impacts of flooding and COVID-19 in Hue City, Central Vietnam

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Understanding the combined mental health impacts of flooding and COVID-19 in Hue City, Central Vietnam
Thi Dieu My Pham, Paul Hudson, Annegret H. Thieken, and Philip Bubeck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1207–1230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1207-2026, 2026
Experiencing severe flooding and COVID-19 together adversely affects mental health. A 2020 survey in Vietnam found that 20 % of participants experienced mental distress, whereas 80 % did not. Flood risk factors include livelihood difficulties, seeing dead human bodies, and being rescued; COVID-19 stressors relate to individual health impacts and interrupted education. These findings highlight the need to address health risks from multiple sources and provide more support for at-risk communities.

Integrating SMART principles in flood early warning system design in the Himalayas

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Integrating SMART principles in flood early warning system design in the Himalayas
Sudhanshu Dixit, Sumit Sen, Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Debashish Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1251–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1251-2026, 2026
Flash floods are becoming more frequent in mountainous regions due to heavier rainstorms. To protect people and property, we are working to better understand local hydrology and improve the efficiency of early warning systems for urban flooding in Lesser Himalayas. By combining community knowledge, low-cost technology, we can enhance understanding of flood dynamics and strengthen preparedness in mountains. This work is a step toward building resilience by bridging science and community insight.

Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa
Hermann Ngueyon Nana, Roméo Stève Tanessong, Masilin Gudoshava, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1269-2026, 2026
The results of this study reveal that the seasonal forecast model used here successfully reproduces the observed annual precipitation cycle and seasonal spatial pattern of rainfall over the region for both September and August initial conditions, with notably better skills for September, compared to August. In addition, the model effectively captures the teleconnections between rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature, including the Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Identification of hydro-meteorological drivers for forest low greenness events in Europe

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Identification of hydro-meteorological drivers for forest low greenness events in Europe
Pauline Rivoire, Sonia Dupuis, Antoine Guisan, Pascal Vittoz, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1183–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1183-2026, 2026
Our study investigates the temperature, precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture conditions leading to the browning of the European forests in summer. Using a Random Forest model and satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, we identify key conditions to predict forest damage. We conclude that hot and dry conditions in spring and summer are adverse conditions. The conditions during the preceding year can also have an impact, with the relevant period varying by forest type.

The EAWS matrix, a decision support tool to determine the regional avalanche danger level (Part B): operational testing and use

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

The EAWS matrix, a decision support tool to determine the regional avalanche danger level (Part B): operational testing and use
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, Christopher Marquardt, and Christoph Mitterer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1161–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1161-2026, 2026
We examined how avalanche forecasters across Europe use the EAWS (European Avalanche Warning Services) Matrix, a decision-support tool for determining regional avalanche danger levels. Although warning services apply the Matrix differently, we identified both consistent patterns and notable inconsistencies in its application. Our findings highlight where the Matrix works well and where clarification is needed, supporting more consistent and transparent avalanche information for the public.

The 15 September 2022 floods in northern Marche (Central Italy): disaster analysis, case studies and mitigation strategies for hydro-geomorphological hazard

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

The 15 September 2022 floods in northern Marche (Central Italy): disaster analysis, case studies and mitigation strategies for hydro-geomorphological hazard
Fabrizio Bendia, Piero Farabollini, Marco Materazzi, and Margherita Bufalini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1119–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1119-2026, 2026
On 15 September 2022, the Marche region was struck by an extreme meteorological event — 419 mm of rainfall in just 6 hours — which caused 13 fatalities and extensive damage. This study investigates the causes and impacts of the event and proposes innovative strategies for hydrogeological and hydraulic risk mitigation, including field surveys, modelling, and targeted safety interventions.

Mitigating Mazuku hazards: implementation and effectiveness of local dry-gas degassing measures in the Goma area (Virunga Volcanic Province)

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Mitigating Mazuku hazards: implementation and effectiveness of local dry-gas degassing measures in the Goma area (Virunga Volcanic Province)
Blaise Mafuko-Nyandwi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1141–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1141-2026, 2026
This paper studies how households in Goma (Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo) respond to mazuku – invisible, odourless carbon dioxide gas that accumulates in depressions. Surveys and interviews show that resource-intensive measures are adopted only by those who can afford them, while awareness measures are valued by all. The findings highlight that involving communities in designing risk mitigation that match their economic realities is essential.

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA
Erich H. Peitzsch, Justin T. Martin, Ethan M. Greene, Nicolas Eckert, Adrien Favillier, Jason Konigsberg, Nickolas Kichas, Daniel K. Stahle, Karl W. Birkeland, Kelly Elder, and Gregory T. Pederson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1059–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026, 2026
Snow avalanches pose substantial risks to communities and public safety in Colorado. We studied tree growth patterns impacted by avalanches from 1698 to 2020 alongside meteorological data. We found variations in avalanche frequency revealing a decline in regional avalanche activity and shifts in the causes of these types of large and widespread avalanche events. This knowledge can enhance avalanche safety measures and infrastructure design.

Harnessing multi-source hydro-meteorological data for high flows modelling in a partially glacierized Himalayan basin

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Harnessing multi-source hydro-meteorological data for high flows modelling in a partially glacierized Himalayan basin
Domenico De Santis, Silvia Barbetta, Sumit Sen, Viviana Maggioni, Farhad Bahmanpouri, Ashutosh Sharma, Ankit Agarwal, Sagar Gupta, Francesco Avanzi, and Christian Massari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1075–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1075-2026, 2026
A conceptual, semi-distributed hydrological model was tailored to simulate high flows in monsoon-dominated, glacier-influenced and flood-prone Himalayan basins. Multi-data calibration using satellite-based glacier mass loss and evapotranspiration estimates improved process realism in data-scarce environments. The proposed modelling approach captured key streamflow features despite significant input uncertainties, proving to be a useful tool for exploring the local hydrological response dynamics.

A thorough review of the 5 May 1990 Potenza (Southern Italy) earthquake: constraints from macroseismology and insights from hydrology

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

A thorough review of the 5 May 1990 Potenza (Southern Italy) earthquake: constraints from macroseismology and insights from hydrology
Andrea Antonucci, Corrado Castellano, Luigi Cucci, and Andrea Tertulliani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1105–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1105-2026, 2026
We present a revised and comprehensive macroseismic dataset of the 5 May 1990 earthquake that occurred in southern Italy (Mw 5.77). By re-evaluating all sources, we compiled a new dataset of 1393 macroseismic data points. This revised dataset shows a general decrease in higher intensity values compared to previous assessments. Additionally, we collect extensive observations of seismically-induced hydrological changes.

Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Simon Allen, Sonam Wangchuk, and Ashim Sattar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026, 2026
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a major threat to mountain communities worldwide. We assessed glacial lake outburst flood risk in Bhutan by integrating hydrodynamic flood modelling with downstream exposure data. Over 11,000 people and around 2,500 buildings are exposed. Thorthormi Tsho is identified as a very high hazard lake, with five additional high hazard lakes. Thirteen downstream settlements face high to very high GLOF risk, five identified for the first time in this study.

Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate
Johanne Kristine Haandbæk Øelund, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Rune Magnus Koktvedgaard Zeitzen, Henrik Vedel, and Henrik Feddersen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1039–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026, 2026
This study explores how a powerful storm like Anatol, which hit Denmark in 1999, could change in a warmer future climate. Using a weather model, the storm was simulated under future temperature conditions. Results show stronger winds affecting larger areas for longer periods. A new index was introduced to measure storm severity. The findings highlight the growing risks to infrastructure and the need for better storm preparedness.

Constantly renewing glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range, northern Tien Shan

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Constantly renewing glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range, northern Tien Shan
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1001-2026, 2026
Glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range, northern Tien Shan, have nearly doubled from 1968 to 2021 as glaciers shrank by 31%. Lake turnover was remarkably high: of the 274 lakes mapped in 1968, 190 had disappeared by 2000, yet 154 new ones emerged, followed by 175 more by 2021. Continuous lake renewal in the Kyrgyz Range results from the combined effects of glacier retreat, glacier‑moraine complex (GMC) expansion, and buried-ice melt which caused surface subsidence and formation of new under warming.

Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 18:05:03 +0100

Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Faranak Tootoonchi, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026, 2026
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent, showing how organisations with preparedness measures in place responded faster and more effectively.