NHESS - recent papers

Unravelling wind-driven impact of storm clusters, a case study for the insurer Generali France

2026-06-12T14:53:09+02:00

Unravelling wind-driven impact of storm clusters, a case study for the insurer Generali France
Laura Hasbini, Pascal Yiou, Quentin Hénaff, Laurent Boissier, and Arthur Perringaux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2817-2026, 2026
Winter windstorms are the main natural hazard for Generali France. We present a method linking storm events to insurance claims, with a focus on clustered events (multiple storms hitting the same region within 96 h). These account for 85 % of losses over the period 1998-2024 and include major events like Lothar and Klaus. Damaging storms are twice as likely to occur in clusters, underlining the need to account for their impact in risk, loss, and reinsurance modelling.

Hybrid forest disturbance classification using Sentinel-1 and inventory data: a case-study for Southeastern USA

2026-06-12T14:53:09+02:00

Hybrid forest disturbance classification using Sentinel-1 and inventory data: a case-study for Southeastern USA
Franziska Müller, Laura Eifler, Felix Cremer, Pieter Beck, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Ana Bastos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2785–2815, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2785-2026, 2026
Forest health is increasingly threatened, but disturbances like wind damage and insect outbreaks are hard to track. Our Sentinel-1 Disturbance Mapping (S1DM) approach combines satellite radar with survey data, improving detection for wind and bark beetle impacts and often spotting them earlier. Defoliators remain difficult to capture, but this method strengthens monitoring and supports better forest management.

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping in a karst context using a machine-learning method (MaxEnt)

2026-06-11T14:53:09+02:00

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping in a karst context using a machine-learning method (MaxEnt)
Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2743–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2743-2026, 2026
We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterise multi-hazard scenarios in a karst environment, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.

A high-resolution framework for urban pluvial flood risk mapping

2026-06-11T14:53:09+02:00

A high-resolution framework for urban pluvial flood risk mapping
Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2765–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2765-2026, 2026
In this study we address risk to pluvial floods by following the risk definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), developed in co-operation with stakeholders of the city of Hamburg. We identify buildings in urban areas where residents face higher flood risk due to greater social vulnerability, increased exposure, or elevated flood hazard. We present the development and application of a Python-based ArcGIS toolbox for estimating pluvial flood risk at building scale.

Assessment of the vulnerability of buildings destroyed during postfire debris flow events in Kule village, Yajiang County, China

2026-06-10T14:53:09+02:00

Assessment of the vulnerability of buildings destroyed during postfire debris flow events in Kule village, Yajiang County, China
Jinshui Wang, Jiangang Chen, Lu Zeng, Fei Yang, Xiao Li, Wanyu Zhao, and Huayong Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2717–2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2717-2026, 2026
Debris flows after wildfires threaten buildings, but assessing vulnerability remains challenging. This study develops a quantitative model to evaluate building vulnerability to postfire debris flows in Yajiang County. Field surveys and numerical simulations were used to analyze debris flow and quantify intensity. The results highlight differences in vulnerability models compared to previous studies, and provides a systematic framework for risk management strategies in wildfire-affected areas.

The Pluvial Flood Index (PFI): a new instrument for evaluating flash flood hazards and facilitating real-time warning

2026-06-10T14:53:09+02:00

The Pluvial Flood Index (PFI): a new instrument for evaluating flash flood hazards and facilitating real-time warning
Markus Weiler, Julia Krumm, Ingo Haag, Hannes Leistert, Max Schmit, Andreas Steinbrich, and Andreas Hänsler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2673–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2673-2026, 2026
Pluvial (flash) floods, caused by intense local rainfall, result in surface runoff and overland flow, making them different from fluvial floods. A new Pluvial Flood Index (PFI) combines precipitation, hydrological, and hydrodynamic processes to assess surface flooding hazards. The PFI, based on flood hazard areas, helps forecast flash floods and supports real-time warning systems, aiding municipal decision-making, preparedness, and planning.

Development of flood vulnerability functions for cultural heritage buildings and artworks for damage assessment in art cities

2026-06-10T14:53:09+02:00

Development of flood vulnerability functions for cultural heritage buildings and artworks for damage assessment in art cities
Claudia De Lucia and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2653–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2653-2026, 2026
Flood damage to cultural heritage is often overlooked, despite potentially severe impacts. A Florence case study estimated average losses exceeding EUR 5 million per site during a major flood. By assessing damage to both buildings and artworks, the study shows heritage sites can be more vulnerable than homes. Including them in flood risk planning is essential to protect their cultural and economic value.

Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain

2026-06-10T14:53:09+02:00

Consistency of seismic hazard estimates from a physics-based earthquake simulator: a case study in south-eastern Spain
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, Paula Herrero-Barbero, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, and Julián García-Mayordomo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2691–2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026, 2026
Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts. Physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are algorithms that model long-term earthquake sequences on faults, overcoming completeness limitations of observations. We test the performance of physics-based seismic hazard assessments in comparison with traditional approaches in Spain. The physics-based approach yields more accurate forecasts, highlighting the potential of simulators for seismic hazard.

Quantifying the current and future likelihood of the 2022 extreme wildfire weather conditions in France with anthropogenic climate change

2026-06-05T14:53:09+02:00

Quantifying the current and future likelihood of the 2022 extreme wildfire weather conditions in France with anthropogenic climate change
Shengling Zhu, Renaud Barbero, François Pimont, and Benjamin Renard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2637-2026, 2026
In 2022, southwestern France saw exceptional wildfires, burning an area about 14 times the regional average. Using fire records, weather data, and climate simulations with and without human influence, we show that human-caused climate change made the weather conditions linked to the 3 largest wildfires about 2 to 10 times more likely; such conditions could become roughly 10 to 100 times more probable by 2100 under moderate emissions, highlighting a growing need for prevention.

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia

2026-06-04T14:53:09+02:00

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia
Ni Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2609–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, 2026
Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.

Monitoring the displacement of large alpine rock slope instabilities with L-band SAR interferometric techniques

2026-06-04T14:53:09+02:00

Monitoring the displacement of large alpine rock slope instabilities with L-band SAR interferometric techniques
Tazio Strozzi, Nina Jones, Federico Agliardi, Alessandro De Pedrini, Othmar Frey, Philipp Bernhard, Rafael Caduff, Christian Ambrosi, and Andrea Manconi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2579–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2579-2026, 2026
The latest satellite technology with longer wavelength radar improves our ability to detect and monitor large alpine rock slope instabilities. This approach works better than current satellite systems in forested areas and on fast-moving slopes, giving experts more reliable data to understand these major hazards. Our results from three locations in Italy and Switzerland also provide important recommendations for the preparation of future satellite radar missions.

Brief communication: Vent opening at Campi Flegrei – clues from dyke propagation patterns

2026-06-03T14:53:09+02:00

Brief communication: Vent opening at Campi Flegrei – clues from dyke propagation patterns
Jacopo Selva and Nello Mangone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2551–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2551-2026, 2026
Forecasting the potential position of future eruptions is fundamental for managing volcanic hazards. Here, we develop a new approach to identify the most likely positions for future eruptions based on the propagation path of the magma that fed past eruptions. Its application to Campi Flegrei shows probability peaks at 2 and 4 km from the caldera center and in the direction of existing topographic peaks. High probability areas correlate well with caldera’s structure and recent major seismicity.

Multi-level assessment of flood risk perception and flood behaviour

2026-06-03T14:53:09+02:00

Multi-level assessment of flood risk perception and flood behaviour
Rocío Coloma, Vicente Saenger, Felipe Link, and Oscar Link
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2525–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2525-2026, 2026
Based on a survey of 1007 residents in four different localities of Chile exposed to river floods, this study builds and applies a framework for assessment of flood risk perception and flood behaviour at the individual, household, neighbourhood and municipality levels. Obtained results suggest that risk communication and risk management strategies should be adapted to focus on the needs of specific neighbourhoods exposed to floods.

Spatiotemporal assessment of landslide risk over large areas: a case study of the Valencian Community (1950–2021)

2026-06-03T14:53:09+02:00

Spatiotemporal assessment of landslide risk over large areas: a case study of the Valencian Community (1950–2021)
Isidro Cantarino Martí, Miguel Ángel Carrión Carmona, Eric Gielen, and José-Sergio Palencia-Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2505–2523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2505-2026, 2026
This study assesses landslide risk across the Valencian Community over time using a regional-scale approach. It shows how urban expansion into unsuitable areas has increased exposure. By combining different indicators, we identify where risk is higher and how it evolves. The results support land-use planning and help decision-makers reduce potential impacts.

Capturing the complete landslide–debris-rich flood continuum for accurate inventory, susceptibility and exposure mapping – lessons from Cyclone Idai

2026-06-03T14:53:09+02:00

Capturing the complete landslide–debris-rich flood continuum for accurate inventory, susceptibility and exposure mapping – lessons from Cyclone Idai
Antoine Dille, Olivier Dewitte, Jente Broeckx, Koen Verbist, Andile Sindiso Dube, Jean Poesen, and Matthias Vanmaercke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2561–2577, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2561-2026, 2026
In mountain regions, intense rainfall can trigger thousands of landslides within hours. Yet, while most efforts focus on where landslides start, the worst impacts often occur far downstream because slope material can mix with large runoffs. Studying Cyclone Idai’s impacts in eastern Zimbabwe, we found that landslide sources explain only one-fifth of total population exposure, highlighting the need to consider the full landslide–flood continuum to better protect people and plan safer landscapes.

Morphological response of vegetated and urbanized barrier islands to Hurricane Ian

2026-06-03T14:53:09+02:00

Morphological response of vegetated and urbanized barrier islands to Hurricane Ian
Hassan Ilyas, Ap van Dongeren, Dano Roelvink, Ellen Quataert, and Christopher Daly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2487–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2487-2026, 2026
This research investigates how natural and urbanized barrier islands along Florida’s coast responded to Hurricane Ian. It shows how vegetation and the built environment influence sediment transport during extreme storms and highlights the importance of incorporating land use and land cover data into models to predict coastal response and evaluate how vegetation can enhance resilience to future climatic events.

A single framework for assessing flash flood and landslide susceptibility: an application to the Mediterranean Liguria region, Italy

2026-06-01T14:53:09+02:00

A single framework for assessing flash flood and landslide susceptibility: an application to the Mediterranean Liguria region, Italy
Alessia Riveros, Chamidu Gunaratne, Mario Martinelli, and Frederiek Christianne Sperna Weiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2437–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2437-2026, 2026
Flash floods and landslides have caused severe economic damages and loss of life, especially in mountainous regions e.g. Liguria. We created susceptibility maps to both hazards based on past recorded events and open-data such as slopes and altitude. We found a similar high predisposition to both hazards along the coast. Outside the coastal area, river valleys and urban areas (or upper river courses) exhibited high susceptibility only to flash floods (or landslides).

Predicting the risk of individual tree fall along powerlines in Norway with a mechanistic wind risk model and machine learning

2026-06-01T14:53:09+02:00

Predicting the risk of individual tree fall along powerlines in Norway with a mechanistic wind risk model and machine learning
Morgane Merlin, Barry Gardiner, and Svein Solberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2461–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2461-2026, 2026
Tree falls along power lines cause safety, cost, and environmental issues. Drones can map individual trees to improve risk management. We applied the ForestGALES wind-risk model to individual trees along power lines in southern Norway. It performed moderately alone but combining it with machine learning greatly improved accuracy, offering managers precise guidance for safer vegetation management.

The TSUSY Database: a global database of historical tsunami events and a tsunami-occurrence criterion based on historical earthquakes

2026-05-29T14:53:09+02:00

The TSUSY Database: a global database of historical tsunami events and a tsunami-occurrence criterion based on historical earthquakes
David Galán Pérez, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Albert Gallego, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Omar Quetzalcóatl, Jose A. Álvarez-Gómez, and Luis Pedraz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2415–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2415-2026, 2026
Tsunamis can have devastating consequences, yet it remains challenging to identify which earthquakes generate them. This study presents a criterion for identifying tsunamigenic events based on numerical simulations, as well as a global database of tsunami simulations based on historical earthquakes. By comparing the results with historical records, this approach can improve tsunami identification and support tsunami warnings worldwide.

Evaluating the effects of preprocessing, method selection, and hyperparameter tuning on SAR-based flood mapping and water depth estimation

2026-05-27T14:53:09+02:00

Evaluating the effects of preprocessing, method selection, and hyperparameter tuning on SAR-based flood mapping and water depth estimation
Jean-Paul Travert, Cédric Goeury, Sébastien Boyaval, Vito Bacchi, and Fabrice Zaoui
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2387–2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2387-2026, 2026
This study presents the impact of various processing methods on flood maps and water depth estimates derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data. The results suggest that the choice of methods and parameters at each processing step has a strong influence on the outputs. This study emphasizes the importance of evaluating the entire processing pipeline to quantify the uncertainties which may hinder the capability to calibrate or validate hydrodynamic models.