Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119
22 Jul 2024
 | 22 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Brief Communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards

Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

Abstract. Spatial counterfactuals are gaining attention to address the lack of robust flood frequency analysis in small catchments. However, the credibility of counterfactual scenarios decreases with the distance rain fields are shifted across space. We limit that distance by a local counterfactual search design, and compare the corresponding scenarios to recently published results from large spatial shifts. We then put all scenarios in context with 200-year return levels, and with flood peaks simulated for the June 2024 flood event in southern Germany. We conclude that local counterfactuals scenarios are transparent and credible, and could complement the anticipation of low probability events.

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Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-119', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Aug 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Paul Voit, 23 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2024-119', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Sep 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Paul Voit, 02 Oct 2024
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann

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Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data, but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data, and climate change. Counterfactuals, or "what if" scenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve future flood preparation.
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