12 Jun 2023
 | 12 Jun 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5-metre flood model and climate change projections

Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven

Abstract. Local stakeholders need information about areas exposed to potential flooding to manage increasing disaster risk. Moderate and large-scale flood hazard mapping is often produced at a low spatial resolution, typically using only one source of flooding (e.g., riverine), and it often fails to include climate change. This article assesses flood hazard exposure in the City of Vancouver, Canada, using flood mapping produced by flood risk science experts JBA Risk Management, which represented baseline exposure at 5-metre spatial resolution and incorporated climate change-adjusted values based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The article identifies areas of both current and future flood exposure in the built environment, differentiating between sources of flooding (fluvial, pluvial, storm surge), climate change scenarios, and return periods. The case study demonstrates the utility of a flood model with a moderate resolution for informing planning, policy development, and public education. Without recent engineered or regulatory mapping available in all areas across Canada, this model provides a mechanism for identifying possible present and future flood risk at a higher resolution than is available at Canada-wide coverage.

Connor Darlington et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-87', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jonathan Raikes, 07 Aug 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-87', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Sep 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jonathan Raikes, 11 Sep 2023

Connor Darlington et al.

Connor Darlington et al.


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Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that make their utility in policy and decision-making difficult. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5-metre model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.