Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-84
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-84
10 Jul 2023
 | 10 Jul 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Study on Seismic Risk Assessment Model of Water Supply System in Chinese Mainland

Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu

Abstract. Using the PGA under four exceeding probabilities calculated by China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method, the probability density function of PGA was obtained by fitting utilizing the Cornell seismic hazard exceeding probability-PGA function model. Combined with the seismic fragility function of the water supply system calculated based on the empirical matrix of actual earthquake damage and the exposure of fixed assets, the seismic loss expectation and loss rate expectation models of the water supply system were established, and the classification standard with the seismic loss rate expectation of the water supply system as the index was proposed. The seismic fragility of the water supply system was classified, and the exposure of the water supply system was analyzed. The total fixed assets in the Water Supply Yearbook were taken as the exposure to earthquake in the region. The accuracy of the fragility model in this paper was verified through the actual earthquake damage losses in Deyang City. Taking the water supply system of 720 cities in Chinese Mainland as an example, the distribution maps of seismic loss expectation and loss rate expectation were calculated and drawn. The loss rate expectation model was verified by the key earthquake prevention areas in Chinese Mainland. The assessment model based on loss expectation and loss rate expectation was taken as the seismic risk assessment model of water supply system in Chinese Mainland.

Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-84', Zoran Stojadinovic, 11 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tianyang Yu, 15 Aug 2023
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Gordon Woo, 01 Dec 2023
        • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tianyang Yu, 02 Dec 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-84', Zoran Stojadinovic, 11 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tianyang Yu, 15 Aug 2023
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Gordon Woo, 01 Dec 2023
        • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tianyang Yu, 02 Dec 2023
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu

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Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in Chinese Mainland was established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities were calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system were given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model.The seismic loss expectation and the loss rate expectation index of 720 urban water supply systems in Chinese Mainland in medium and long-term were given.
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