Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the South China Sea Based on Geodetic Locking of the Manila Subduction Zone
Abstract. This study provides a dataset and shows the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard in the South China Sea sourcing from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data around the Manila subduction zone is used to invert the geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone, further used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude, and applied to tsunami hazard assessment. The spatial distribution of tsunami wave height with 1000 years return period is shown and several high hazard areas in the South China Sea are pointed out. Uncertainties of the seismic source are explored, including the slip heterogeneity, the upper limit of seismic magnitude and segmentation. The impact of locking distribution and randomness of slip on tsunami hazard assessment demonstrates that traditional uniform slip assumption significantly underestimates the tsunami hazard.
Status: open (until 16 Mar 2024)
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