Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-227
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-227
26 Jan 2024
 | 26 Jan 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the South China Sea Based on Geodetic Locking of the Manila Subduction Zone

Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu

Abstract. This study provides a dataset and shows the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard in the South China Sea sourcing from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data around the Manila subduction zone is used to invert the geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone, further used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude, and applied to tsunami hazard assessment. The spatial distribution of tsunami wave height with 1000 years return period is shown and several high hazard areas in the South China Sea are pointed out. Uncertainties of the seismic source are explored, including the slip heterogeneity, the upper limit of seismic magnitude and segmentation. The impact of locking distribution and randomness of slip on tsunami hazard assessment demonstrates that traditional uniform slip assumption significantly underestimates the tsunami hazard.

Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu

Status: open (until 16 Mar 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-227', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Feb 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-227', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Mar 2024 reply
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu

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Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data is used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
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