07 Feb 2023
 | 07 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Brief Communication: towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes

Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori

Abstract. A methodological approach is proposed to provide an analytical (exponential-like) expression for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of the convective available potential energy and the wind shear (or, alternatively, the storm relative helicity). The resulting expression allows to compute the probability of tornado occurrence using variables that are computed by weather prediction and climate models, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to resolve these phenomena in numerical simulations.

Roberto Ingrosso et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-19', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Feb 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-19', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2023

Roberto Ingrosso et al.

Roberto Ingrosso et al.


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Short summary
Tornadoes represent one of the most disruptive and dangerous weather phenomena all around the world. Due to the small scale of this phenomenon, tornadoes weather forecast and climatic projections are beyond the capability of the current atmospheric models. Here, a methodological approach is proposed to provide analytical formulas for the probability of tornado occurrence that could be used for early warning systems and for projection of the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity.