07 Nov 2023
 | 07 Nov 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile

Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub

Abstract. Different risk management tasks, such as land-use planning, preparedness and emergency response, utilize scenarios of earthquake events. A systematic selection of such scenarios should aim at finding those that are representative of a certain severity, which can be measured by its consequences to the exposed assets. For this reason, it has been proposed to define a representative scenario as the most likely one leading to a loss with a specific return period, e.g., the 100-year loss. We adopt this definition and develop enhanced algorithms for determining such scenarios for multiple return periods, based on a seismic catalog. With this approach, we identify representative earthquake scenarios for the Valparaíso and Viña del Mar communes in Chile. Because the earthquake scenarios are defined in terms of the loss exceedance, the scenarios vary in function of the exposed system. In this contribution, we consider separately the residential building stock and the electrical power network, and identify and compare earthquake scenarios that are representative for these systems.

Hugo Rosero-Velásquez et al.

Status: open (until 19 Dec 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Review of nhess-2023-186', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Nov 2023 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-186', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Nov 2023 reply

Hugo Rosero-Velásquez et al.

Hugo Rosero-Velásquez et al.


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Short summary
Seismic risk management uses scenarios of earthquake events, but the selection criteria do not always consider consequences to exposed assets. For this reason, we adopt a definition of representative scenario, associated to a return period and loss level, for selecting such scenarios among a big set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential buildings and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios vary in function of the exposed assets.