Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production

Abstract. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are projected to increase in intensity globally, impacting human lives, infrastructure, and important agricultural activities, such as banana production. Banana production is already impacted by TCs in several parts of the world, leading to price volatility and impacted livelihoods of banana producers. While many potential impacts on banana production have already been quantified on a local scale, it remains unclear how bananas could be impacted by TCs across the globe under future climate conditions. To address this, we first looked at the documented impacts of cyclones on banana production from different places all around the world. Using spatially explicit data on banana producing regions and future TC occurrence and magnitude, we then identify the spatial distribution and extent of areas where TCs could impact banana production. Our results suggest that considerable portions of global banana production are at risk to be impacted by TCs under future climate conditions, and we show this for different return periods (RP).

Globally, at the 100-year return period, 24.3 % of all bananas producing areas will be majorly or completely damaged under present climate conditions and 26.5 % under future climate conditions. When looking at production, we see that 30.1 % of global production is projected to be majorly or completely damaged at the 100-year RP. The regions predominantly affected by future TCs are Asia and the Caribbean, experiencing substantial disruption in banana production. Our results therefore indicate, that considerable efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation need to be made in order to ensure the stability of global banana supply chains.