Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157
05 Sep 2023
 | 05 Sep 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Large-scale flood risk assessment in data scarce areas: an application to Central Asia

Gabriele Coccia, Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov

Abstract. The countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia are highly prone to natural hazards, more specifically, floods, earthquakes, and landslides. The European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the GFDRR, created the program “Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia” (SFRARR), aiming to advance disaster and climate resilience in Central Asia. Within the framework of the SFRARR project, the “Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and floods and selective landslide scenario analysis for strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction in Central Asia” was conceived to help handle and achieve the parent project objectives.

A fully probabilistic risk assessment for pluvial and fluvial floods has been carried out for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for supporting regional and national risk financing and insurance applications, including potential indemnity and/or parametric risk financing solutions for the structuring of a regional program. The pluvial flood part of the study, however, is omitted here for brevity. A homogenized risk assessment methodology for the five countries and across multiple hazards (floods and earthquake) and asset types has been adopted to obtain strategic financial solutions consistent across geographical areas and across economic sectors.

This article presents the data, model, methodology and results for the five Central Asia countries of the flood risk assessment, which represents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary risk assessment study in the area aiming at providing tools for decision-making. The output information will inform and enable the World Bank to initiate a policy dialogue.

Currently, the availability of risk information for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance (DRFI) activities remains variable across the region and has been provided by previous projects focusing on a single country. Moreover, few of these studies have quantified multi-hazard disaster risk, and, to our best knowledge, none have done so for the whole region using probabilistic methods applied with the sufficient fidelity required to robustly inform the development of DRFI solutions.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Gabriele Coccia, Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-157', Dominik Paprotny, 30 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-157', Francesco Dottori, 09 Nov 2023
Gabriele Coccia, Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Gabriele Coccia, Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov

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Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asia countries for supporting regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming at providing tools for decision-making.
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