Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-102
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-102
03 Jul 2023
 | 03 Jul 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems

Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen

Abstract. In this article we present a method for numerical simulations of extreme sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems as atmospheric forcing. Our simulations can be considered as estimates of the high sea levels that may be reached when a low-pressure system of high intensity and optimal track passes the studied region. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast and simulate synthetic cyclones with various intensities and tracks. To model the effects of the cyclone properties on sea level, we simulate internal Baltic Sea water level variations with a numerical two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, forced by an ensemble of time-dependent wind and air-pressure fields from synthetic cyclones. The storm surges caused by the synthetic cyclones come on top of the mean water level of the Baltic Sea, for which we used a fixed upper estimate of 100 cm. We find high extremes in the northern Bothnian Bay and in the eastern Gulf of Finland, where the sea level extreme due to the synthetic cyclone reach up to 3.5 meters. In the event that the mean water level of the Baltic Sea has a maximal value (1 meter) during the cyclone, highest sea levels of 4.5 meters could thus be reached. We find our method to be suitable for use in further studies of sea level extremes.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-102', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jani Särkkä, 28 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-102', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jani Särkkä, 28 Nov 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-102', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Jul 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jani Särkkä, 28 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-102', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jani Särkkä, 28 Nov 2023
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen

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Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reach up to 3.5 meters. In addition that, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m) leading to sea level of 4.5 meters.
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