Invited perspectives: Current challenges to face knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk management – an insurer perspective
- AXA Group Risk Management, Paris, 75008, France
Abstract. All along the value chain of Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance, various types of data feed a wide range of models to estimate the amount of loss for different probabilities and magnitudes of events for all risks undertaken (natural hazards, financial, cyber…). These data and models support the current understanding and knowledge of risks as well as the assessment of not yet experienced situations. The current state of what is known today about natural hazards loss modelling in the (re)insurance market is the outcome of more than 30 years of research, of the development of a wide community around natural hazards as well as of the occurrence of natural hazards. This paper highlights the need for an in-depth review of the current loss modelling framework, created at the early 1990s, to capture the increased complexity of each driver of the risk (exposure, hazard and vulnerability) as well as their interconnection.
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