Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-26
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-26
 
25 Jan 2022
25 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal NHESS and is expected to appear here in due course.

Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone period in a coastal city: The case of Shanghai

Hanqing Xu1,2,3, Zhan Tian2, Laixiang Sun4, Qinghua Ye3,5, Elisa Ragno3, Jeremy Bricker3,6, Ganquan Mao2, Jinkai Tan7, Jun Wang1, Qian Ke3, Shuai Wang8, and Ralf Toumi8 Hanqing Xu et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
  • 2School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
  • 3Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
  • 4Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA
  • 5Deltares, Delft, Netherlands
  • 6Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
  • 7School of Atmospheric Sciences, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System (Ministry of Education), Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
  • 8Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK

Abstract. Compound flooding is generated when two or more flood drivers occur simultaneously or in close succession. Multiple drivers can amplify each other and lead to greater impacts than when they occur in isolation. A better understanding of the interdependence between flood drivers will facilitate a more accurate assessment of compound flood risk in the coastal regions. This study employed the Delft3D-Flow Flexible Mesh model to simulate the peak coastal water level, consisting of storm surge, astronomical tide, and the relative sea level rise (RSLR) in Shanghai over 1961–2018. It then applies a copula-based methodology to calculate the joint probability of peak water level and rainfall during historical tropical cyclones (TCs) and to calculate the marginal contribution of each driver. The results indicate that the astronomic tide is the leading driver to peak water level, followed by the contribution of storm surge. In a longer term, the RSLR has significantly amplified the peak water level. This framework could be applied to other coastal cities which face the similar constraint of unavailable water level records.

Hanqing Xu et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-26', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhan Tian, 16 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-26', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Feb 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhan Tian, 16 Mar 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-26', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Feb 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhan Tian, 16 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-26', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Feb 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhan Tian, 16 Mar 2022

Hanqing Xu et al.

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Short summary
Taking a hydrodynamic model and copula methodology to set up joint distribution of peak water level and inland rainfall during the TC period, and to calculate the marginal contribution of the individual drivers. It indicates the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomic tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution of storm surge.
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