06 Oct 2022
06 Oct 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Havu Pellikka1,2, Milla M. Johansson2, Maaria Nordman1,3, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja2 Havu Pellikka et al.
  • 1Department of Built Environment, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
  • 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • 3Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, National Land Survey of Finland, Masala, Finland

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) on the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901-2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from -28 (-54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.

Havu Pellikka et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-230', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Oct 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Havu Pellikka, 15 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-230', Anonymous Referee #2, 24 Oct 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Havu Pellikka, 15 Nov 2022

Havu Pellikka et al.

Havu Pellikka et al.


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Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise on the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level in 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.