Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-216
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-216
 
02 Sep 2022
02 Sep 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: an application to Italian localities

Andrea Antonucci1, Andrea Rovida1, Vera D'Amico2, and Dario Albarello3,4 Andrea Antonucci et al.
  • 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Milano, 20133, Italy
  • 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, 56125, Italy
  • 3Department of Physics, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, 53100, Italy
  • 4Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Roma, 00185, Italy

Abstract. A methodology to detect local incompleteness of macroseismic intensity data at the local scale is presented. In particular, the probability that undocumented effects actually occurred at a site is determined by considering intensity prediction equations (in their probabilistic form) integrated by observations relative to known events documented at surrounding sites. Outcomes of this analysis can be used to investigate how representative and known are the seismic histories of localities (i.e., the list of documented effects through time). The proposed approach is applied to the Italian area. The analysis shows that, at most of the considered sites, effects of intensity ≥ 6 should most probably have been occurred at least once, but they are not contained in the current version of the Italian Macroseismic Databases. In few cases, instead, the lack of data may concern higher intensity levels (i.e., ≥ 8). The distribution of potentially lost information suggests geographical correlations possibly related to the heterogeneity of the seismic activity over the Italian territory.

Andrea Antonucci et al.

Status: open (until 17 Oct 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Andrea Antonucci et al.

Andrea Antonucci et al.

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Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependences and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
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