20 Jul 2022
20 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data

Carlos Millán-Arancibia1,2 and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro1 Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
  • 1National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI), Lima, 15072, Peru
  • 2Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (UNALM), Lima 15012, Peru

Abstract. The objective of this work was to generate and evaluate regional rainfall thresholds obtained from a combination of high-resolution gridded precipitation data (PISCOpd_Op), developed by the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI), and information from observed shallow landslide events. The landslide data were associated with rainfall data, determining triggering and non-triggering rainfall events with rainfall properties from which rainfall thresholds were determined. The validation of the performance of the thresholds was carried out with events that occurred during 2020 and focused on evaluating the operability of these thresholds in landslide warning systems in Peru. Thresholds were determined for 11 rainfall regions. The method of determining the thresholds was based on an empirical–statistical approach, and the predictive performance of the thresholds was evaluated from the “true skill statistics” (TSS) and the area under the curve (AUC). The best predictive performance was obtained by the mean daily intensity-duration (Imean – D) threshold curve, followed by accumulated rainfall E. This work is the first attempt to estimate regional thresholds on a country scale in order to better understand landslides, and the results obtained reveal the potential of using thresholds in the monitoring and forecasting of shallow landslides caused by intense rainfall and in supporting the actions of disaster risk management.

Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

Status: open (until 31 Aug 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-199', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Aug 2022 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-199', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Aug 2022 reply

Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro


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Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds that trigger shallow landslides in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity-duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work, is demonstrate the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional level.