Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183
 
06 Jul 2022
06 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru

Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata1,2, Massimiliano Pittore1,3, Nils Brinckmann4, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga5, Sergio Medina5, Nicola Tarque6,7, and Fabrice Cotton1,2 Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata et al.
  • 1Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
  • 2Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
  • 3Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, Bolzano, 39100, Italy
  • 4eScience Centre, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
  • 5Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Agrícola, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Bogotá, 11001, Colombia
  • 6Gerdis Research Group, Civil Eng. Division, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Av. Universitaria 1801, Lima, Peru
  • 7Department of Continues Mechanics and Structures, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Calle Aranguren 3, Madrid, Spain

Abstract. Multi-hazard risk assessments for building portfolios exposed to earthquake shaking followed by a tsunami are usually based on empirical vulnerability models calibrated on post-event surveys of damaged buildings. The applicability of these models cannot easily be extrapolated to other regions of larger/smaller events. Moreover, the quantitative evaluation of the damages related to each of the hazards type (disaggregation) is impossible. To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, this study proposes an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed and calibrated by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. This method is based on the proposal of state-dependent fragility functions for the triggered hazard to account for the pre-existing damage, and the harmonisation of building classes and damage states through their taxonomic characterization, which is transversal to any hazard-dependent vulnerability. This modular assemblage also allows us to separate the economic losses expected for each scenario on building portfolios subjected to cascading hazards. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios. We show the importance of accounting for damage accumulation on extended building portfolios while observing a dependency between the earthquake magnitude and the losses derived for each hazard scenario. For the commonly exposed residential building stock of Lima exposed to both perils, we find that classical tsunami empirical fragility functions lead to an underestimation of predicted losses for lower magnitudes (Mw) and large overestimations for larger Mw events in comparison to our state-dependent models and cumulative damage method.

Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata et al.

Status: open (until 18 Sep 2022)

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Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata et al.

Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata et al.

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Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
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