Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case study of Attica, Greece

Abstract. Forest fires constitute a major environmental and socioeconomic hazard in the Mediterranean. Weather and climate are among the main factors influencing forest fire potential. As fire danger is expected to increase under changing climate, seasonal forecasting of weather conditions conductive to fires is of paramount importance for implementing effective fire prevention policies. The aim of the current study is to provide high resolution (~9 km) probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts, utilizing the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) for Attica region, one of the most fire prone regions in Greece and the Mediterranean, employing the fifth generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5). Results indicate that FWI and its Initial Spread Index (ISI) sub-component, present statistically significant high discrimination scores and are proven respectively, marginally useful, and perfectly reliable in predicting above normal fire danger conditions. When comparing year-by-year the fire danger predictions with the historical fire occurrence obtained by the Hellenic Fire Service database, both seasonal FWI and ISI forecasts indicate a skill in identifying years with high fire occurrences. Overall, fire danger and its sub-components can potentially be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management regarding preparedness and resources allocation in the Attica region.