09 Jun 2022
09 Jun 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Combined Hazard Analysis of Flood and Tsunamis on The Western Mediterranean Coast of Turkey

Cuneyt Yavuz1,2, Kutay Yilmaz3, and Gorkem Onder4 Cuneyt Yavuz et al.
  • 1Department of Construction Technologies, Technical Sciences Vocational School, Dumlupinar University, 43000, Kutahya, Turkey
  • 2Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 113-8654, Tokyo, Japan
  • 3ALTER International Engineering Inc. Co., 06800, Ankara, Turkey
  • 4Sumodel Engineering Inc. Co., 06800, Ankara. Turkey

Abstract. Flood has always been a devastating hazard for social and economic assets and activities. Especially, low-land areas such as coastal regions can be more vulnerable to inundations. The combination of different natural hazards observed at the same time is definitely worsening the situation in the affected regions. The goal of this study is to conduct a distinctive combined hazards analysis considering flood hazards with the contribution of potential earthquake-triggered tsunamis that might be observed through the Fethiye coastline and city center. For this purpose, tsunami hazard curves are generated based on Monte Carlo Simulations. Comprehensive stochastic hazard analyses are performed considering aleatory variability of earthquake-triggered tsunamis and epistemic uncertainty of flood having 10 year return period. Numerical simulations are conducted to combine the potential tsunamis and flood events that are able to adversely affect the selected region. The results of this study show that the blockage of stream outlets due to tsunami waves drastically increases the inundated areas and worsens the condition for the selected region.

Cuneyt Yavuz et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2022-121', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Jun 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Cuneyt Yavuz, 14 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2022-121', Lucy Bricheno, 26 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Cuneyt Yavuz, 21 Sep 2022

Cuneyt Yavuz et al.

Cuneyt Yavuz et al.


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Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence for these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to the Fethiye city located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.