Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-88
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-88

  31 Mar 2021

31 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling

Elena Mondino1,2, Anna Scolobig3, Marco Borga4, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre1,2 Elena Mondino et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala 752 36, Sweden
  • 2Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala 752 36, Sweden
  • 3Environmental Governance and Territorial Development Institute, University of Geneva, Geneva 1205, Switzerland
  • 4Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padua, Padua 351 22, Italy

Abstract. Numerous scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties of coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human-water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data times series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data, and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (one year). Perceived preparedness also did not change, but we observed differences related to damage severity. More precisely, preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damages during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches constitute robust data that can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to improve socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human-water systems in order to better support risk management.

Elena Mondino et al.

Status: open (until 16 May 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-88', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Apr 2021 reply

Elena Mondino et al.

Elena Mondino et al.

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Short summary
Survey data collected over time can provide new insights on how different people respond to floods and can be used in models to study the complex coevolution of human-water systems. We present two methods to collect such data and we compare the respective results. Risk awareness decreases only for women, while preparedness takes different trajectories depending on the damage suffered. These results support a more diverse representation of society in flood risk modelling and risk management.
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