Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-75
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-75

  23 Apr 2021

23 Apr 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Still normal? Contextualizing real-time data with long-term statistics to monitor anomalies and systematic changes in storm surge activity – Introduction of a prototype web tool storm surge monitor for the German coasts

Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse Xin Liu et al.
  • Institute of Coastal System Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

Abstract. Storm surges represent a major threat to many low-lying coastal areas in the world. While most places can cope with or are more or less adapted to present-day risks, future risks may increase from factors such as sea level rise, subsidence, or changes in storm activity. This may require further or alternative adaptation and strategies. For most places, both forecasts and real-time observations are available. However, analyses of long-term changes or recent severe extremes that are important for decision-making are usually only available sporadically or with substantial delay. In this paper, we propose to contextualize real-time data with long-term statistics to make such information publicly available in near real-time. We implement and demonstrate the concept of a ”storm surge monitor” for tide gauges along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts. It provides automated near real-time assessments of the course and severity of the ongoing storm surge season and its single events. The assessment is provided in terms of storm surge height, frequency, duration, and intensity. It is proposed that such near real-time assessments provide added value to the public and decision-making. It is further suggested that the concept is transferable to other coastal regions threatened by storm surges.

Xin Liu et al.

Status: open (until 04 Jun 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Xin Liu et al.

Xin Liu et al.

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Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, the extent to which such events can be considered unusual is often discussed. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. A tool and an approach that provides such contextualization in near-real time were developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown, that such information can be easily provided in near-real time.
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