Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-70
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-70

  16 Mar 2021

16 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata1,2, Nils Brinckmann3, Sven Harig4, Raquel Zafrir1,5, Massimilano Pittore1,6, Fabrice Cotton1,2, and Andrey Babeyko7 Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata et al.
  • 1Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
  • 2Institute for Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany
  • 3eScience Centre, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
  • 4Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany
  • 5Head Aerospace Group, Paris, 92250, France
  • 6Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC Research, 39100, Bolzano, Italy
  • 7Geodynamic Modelling, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. We propose the use of variable resolution boundaries based on Central Voronoi Tessellations (CVT) to spatially aggregate building exposure models for risk assessment to various natural hazards. Such a framework is especially beneficial when the spatial distribution of the considered hazards present intensity measures with contrasting footprints and spatial correlations such as in coastal environments. This proposal avoids the incorrect assumption that a single intensity value from hazards with low spatial correlation (e.g. tsunami) are considered as representative within large sized geocells for physical vulnerability assessment, without, at the same time, increasing the complexity of the overall model. We present decoupled earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk estimates for the residential building stock of Lima (Peru). We observe that earthquake loss models for far-field subduction sources are practically insensitive to the exposure resolution. Conversely, tsunami loss models and associated uncertainties depend on the spatial correlations of the hazard intensities as well as on the resolution of the exposure models. We observe that for the portfolio located in the coastal area exposed to both perils in Lima, the ground-shaking dominates the losses for lower magnitudes whilst the tsunami does for the larger ones. For the latter, two sets of existing empirical flow-depth fragility models are used, finding large differences in the losses. This study arises awareness about the uncertainties in the selection of fragility models and aggregations entities for exposure modelling and loss mapping.

Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-70', Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, 02 Apr 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2021-70', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Apr 2021
  • RC3: 'Comment on nhess-2021-70', Anonymous Referee #3, 26 Apr 2021
  • RC4: 'Comment on nhess-2021-70', Anonymous Referee #4, 26 Apr 2021

Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata et al.

Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata et al.

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Short summary
We present variable resolution boundaries based on Central Voronoi Tessellations (CVT) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geocell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk-loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
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